Sun, Jan 12, 2025·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Minnesota Wild 1, Vegas Golden Knights 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 17 | 06 | 03 | 116 |
| VGK | 09 | 117 | 311 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:09MINRyan HartmanAssists: Zach Bogosian · Snap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 5:21VGKPavel DorofeyevPPAssists: Mark Stone, Shea Theodore · Snap, 0.21 xG1–1
- P3 4:09VGKKeegan KolesarGWGAssists: Zach Whitecloud, Nicolas Roy · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 15:40VGKTomas HertlAssists: Pavel Dorofeyev, Shea Theodore · Snap, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 17:48VGKPavel DorofeyevPPAssists: Mark Stone, Tomas Hertl · Snap, 0.17 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:50VGKKeegan Kolesar: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:50MINMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:11MINYakov Trenin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 3:19MINDevin Shore: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:23MINJake Middleton: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 11:26VGKIvan Barbashev: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:53MINZach Bogosian: Holding2 min
- P3 9:41VGKBrett Howden: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:02MINZach Bogosian: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestShore – Jones – Khusnutdinov7:28
xG 0.52–0.37 (59%)attempts 8–9goals 0–2
- Foligno – Eriksson Ek – Trenin8:08
xG 0.20–0.12 (63%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Johansson – Hartman – Gaudreau8:28
xG 0.35–0.57 (38%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- Zuccarello – Boldy – Rossi13:09
xG 0.34–0.81 (30%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Merrill4:07
xG 0.25–0.04 (86%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Bogosian – Middleton6:15
xG 0.27–0.26 (51%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
- Bogosian – Chisholm9:07
xG 0.43–0.42 (50%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKolesar – Roy – Howden10:07
xG 0.58–0.19 (76%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Stone – Karlsson – Barbashev11:06
xG 0.71–0.33 (68%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Hertl – Olofsson – Dorofeyev11:59
xG 0.72–0.47 (60%)attempts 15–8goals 1–1
- Pearson – Schwindt – Holtz5:07
xG 0.01–0.18 (5%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Hanifin16:59
xG 1.21–0.57 (68%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- McNabb – Theodore13:58
xG 0.64–0.24 (73%)attempts 16–7goals 1–1
- Hague – Whitecloud13:17
xG 0.42–0.48 (47%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).