Mon, Jan 13, 2025·United Center, Chicago
Calgary Flames 5, Chicago Blackhawks 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 314 | 212 | 010 | 536 |
| CHI | 17 | 110 | 08 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:14CGYJakob PelletierAssists: Rory Kerins, Brayden Pachal · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 2:38CHILouis CrevierAssists: Lukas Reichel · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 11:47CGYJakob PelletierAssists: Kevin Bahl, Rory Kerins · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P1 14:08CGYMikael BacklundGWGAssists: Matt Coronato, Blake Coleman · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–1
- P2 1:55CGYJake BeanAssists: Yegor Sharangovich, Jakob Pelletier · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–1
- P2 11:29CHIConnor BedardPPAssists: Seth Jones, Teuvo Teravainen · Snap, 0.06 xG4–2
- P2 13:38CGYYegor SharangovichSHAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.14 xG5–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:13CHIRyan Donato: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 10:30CGYMartin Pospisil: Boarding5 min · PPG
- P2 10:30CGYMartin Pospisil: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 19:17CHILukas Reichel: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:16CHILouis Crevier: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dickinson won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Coronato9:31
xG 0.96–0.38 (72%)attempts 19–6goals 1–0
- Kadri – Huberdeau – Pospisil6:58
xG 0.21–0.10 (68%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Lomberg – Rooney – Duehr8:41
xG 0.34–0.26 (57%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Sharangovich – Pelletier – Kerins10:11
xG 0.59–0.64 (48%)attempts 15–12goals 3–0
Defence pairs
- bestAndersson – Bahl15:00
xG 1.34–0.45 (75%)attempts 26–12goals 1–0
- Bean – Pachal11:34
xG 0.61–0.53 (54%)attempts 11–14goals 2–0
- Weegar – Hanley15:59
xG 0.23–0.47 (33%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Maroon – Donato3:00
xG 0.16–0.01 (93%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Dickinson – Mikheyev3:45
xG 0.14–0.00 (98%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Mikheyev – Reichel – Dach2:03
xG 0.14–0.04 (76%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Mikheyev – Bedard2:57
xG 0.16–0.15 (52%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKaiser – Allan8:16
xG 0.36–0.25 (59%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Martinez – Kaiser8:56
xG 0.26–0.23 (53%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Martinez – Jones3:37
xG 0.15–0.29 (34%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).