Tue, Jan 14, 2025·TD Garden, Boston
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Boston Bruins 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 09 | 220 | 016 | 245 |
| BOS | 26 | 212 | 26 | 624 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:24BOSTrent FredericAssists: Matthew Poitras, Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–1
- P1 9:31BOSParker WotherspoonAssists: David Pastrnak, Pavel Zacha · Snap, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 1:13BOSBrad MarchandGWGAssists: David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–3
- P2 6:05BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Pavel Zacha, Andrew Peeke · Snap, 0.12 xG0–4
- P2 8:50TBLConor GeekieAssists: Victor Hedman, Darren Raddysh · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–4
- P2 19:42TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Nick Paul · Snap, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 16:30BOSAndrew PeekeENAssists: Elias Lindholm · Snap, 0.30 xG2–5
- P3 16:56BOSPavel ZachaENAssists: Brad Marchand, Nikita Zadorov · Wrist, 0.46 xG2–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:56TBLRyan McDonagh: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 18:57TBLBrandon Hagel: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:02BOSNikita Zadorov: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:02TBLMitchell Chaffee: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:37TBLEmil Lilleberg: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:37BOSTrent Frederic: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:54TBLAnthony Cirelli: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:54BOSParker Wotherspoon: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:21BOSNikita Zadorov: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:21TBLErik Cernak: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:27BOSBrandon Carlo: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Cirelli – Hagel10:56
xG 0.70–0.15 (82%)attempts 18–2goals 0–0
- Guentzel – Paul – Geekie5:37
xG 0.24–0.05 (84%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Guentzel – Paul5:34
xG 0.44–0.25 (64%)attempts 9–4goals 1–1
- Atkinson – Chaffee – Finley2:00
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Cernak9:28
xG 0.45–0.21 (68%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Raddysh – Lilleberg3:45
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Hedman – Perbix4:15
xG 0.35–0.21 (63%)attempts 10–1goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- Coyle – Frederic – Poitras7:56
xG 0.46–0.44 (51%)attempts 5–14goals 1–0
- Pastrnak – Zacha – Geekie11:27
xG 0.45–0.46 (49%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
- Brazeau – Koepke – Beecher6:06
xG 0.09–0.20 (31%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Marchand – Lindholm – Lettieri8:36
xG 0.15–0.33 (32%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPeeke – Callahan9:20
xG 0.42–0.24 (63%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Wotherspoon – Peeke4:56
xG 0.11–0.06 (63%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Wotherspoon – Lohrei13:23
xG 0.50–0.59 (46%)attempts 9–19goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).