Tue, Jan 14, 2025·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
San Jose Sharks 6, Detroit Red Wings 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 26 | 09 | 49 | 624 |
| DET | 012 | 16 | 210 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:45SJSJan RuttaAssists: Will Smith, Alexander Wennberg · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 17:41SJSNico SturmSHAssists: William Eklund, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 1:28DETVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Simon Edvinsson, Jonatan Berggren · Snap, 0.17 xG2–1
- P3 0:26SJSWilliam EklundAssists: Macklin Celebrini, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 6:05DETVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Michael Rasmussen · Snap, 0.17 xG3–2
- P3 7:43SJSMikael GranlundPPGWGAssists: Macklin Celebrini, Tyler Toffoli · Backhand, 0.16 xG4–2
- P3 9:56DETLucas RaymondAssists: Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–3
- P3 10:57SJSTyler ToffoliAssists: William Eklund · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–3
- P3 18:22SJSMario FerraroENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.27 xG6–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 15:42SJSMario Ferraro: Holding2 min
- P2 3:12SJSTy Dellandrea: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:50DETAlbert Johansson: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Celebrini
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Toffoli – Eklund – Celebrini11:00
xG 0.55–0.61 (47%)attempts 11–14goals 2–1
- Goodrow – Dellandrea – Sturm8:53
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Granlund – Zetterlund – Graf11:49
xG 0.18–0.37 (33%)attempts 3–12goals 0–1
- Wennberg – Kunin – Smith12:56
xG 0.28–1.08 (20%)attempts 9–21goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Rutta13:50
xG 0.33–0.13 (71%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Ceci – Liljegren2:02
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Ceci – Ferraro2:11
xG 0.00–0.26 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestKane – Copp – DeBrincat15:08
xG 1.10–0.42 (73%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Tarasenko – Compher – Berggren9:46
xG 0.40–0.10 (80%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Tarasenko – Rasmussen – Veleno2:13
xG 0.23–0.07 (76%)attempts 3–1goals 1–1
- Motte – Rasmussen – Veleno4:14
xG 0.03–0.02 (60%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohansson – Edvinsson15:32
xG 1.07–0.46 (70%)attempts 21–9goals 1–0
- Holl – Gustafsson12:39
xG 0.61–0.40 (60%)attempts 16–10goals 2–2
- Chiarot – Edvinsson3:26
xG 0.25–0.07 (79%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).