Tue, Jan 14, 2025·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 18 | 09 | 17 | 01 | 0 | 225 |
| CBJ | 18 | 08 | 19 | 03 | 2 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:44PHIBobby BrinkAssists: Nick Seeler, Jamie Drysdale · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 10:27CBJZach WerenskiUnassisted · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 8:13PHIOwen TippettAssists: Morgan Frost · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 15:23CBJZach WerenskiAssists: Kirill Marchenko, Adam Fantilli · Snap, 0.16 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. CBJ Kent Johnson scored
- 2. PHI Travis Konecny stopped
- 3. CBJ Adam Fantilli stopped
- 4. PHI Matvei Michkov stopped
- 5. CBJ Kirill Marchenko scored
Penalties (5)
- P2 1:50CBJDante Fabbro: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:39PHITravis Konecny: Interference2 min
- P2 11:39CBJMathieu Olivier: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:39PHITravis Konecny: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:10CBJZachary Aston-Reese: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fantilli won the faceoff against Poehling
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestKonecny – Tippett – Frost12:17
xG 0.42–0.22 (66%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Laughton – Hathaway – Poehling11:44
xG 0.33–0.25 (57%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Couturier – Lycksell – Michkov8:28
xG 0.21–0.17 (55%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Cates – Brink – Foerster11:19
xG 0.87–0.92 (48%)attempts 15–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Drysdale11:46
xG 1.11–0.16 (87%)attempts 24–5goals 1–0
- Ristolainen – Zamula14:26
xG 0.41–0.41 (50%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
- Seeler – Ristolainen2:00
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMarchenko – Voronkov – Fantilli13:55
xG 1.14–0.18 (86%)attempts 20–8goals 1–0
- Kuraly – Labanc – Pyyhtia7:41
xG 0.43–0.06 (87%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Johnson – Del Bel Belluz10:16
xG 0.12–0.36 (26%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Olivier – Aston-Reese – Sillinger13:45
xG 0.06–0.74 (8%)attempts 8–21goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Werenski4:44
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Severson – Christiansen9:51
xG 0.32–0.12 (73%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Werenski – Fabbro19:29
xG 0.87–0.92 (49%)attempts 16–22goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).