Tue, Jan 14, 2025·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Nashville Predators 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 01 | 28 | 113 | 322 |
| NSH | 211 | 210 | 12 | 523 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:44NSHSteven StamkosAssists: Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–1
- P1 12:06NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 5:29NSHJustin BarronAssists: Roman Josi, Gustav Nyquist · Slap, 0.06 xG0–3
- P2 8:41NSHSteven StamkosGWGAssists: Jonathan Marchessault · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–4
- P2 9:12VGKPavel DorofeyevAssists: Victor Olofsson, Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–4
- P2 14:02VGKPavel DorofeyevPPAssists: Tomas Hertl, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 15:20VGKPavel DorofeyevAssists: Victor Olofsson, Shea Theodore · Snap, 0.08 xG3–4
- P3 19:58NSHRyan O'ReillyENAssists: Colton Sissons · Wrist, 0.71 xG3–5
Penalties (3)
- P2 6:24VGKPavel Dorofeyev: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:55NSHVinnie Hinostroza: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:00NSHSteven Stamkos: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McCarron won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Olofsson – Dorofeyev7:20
xG 0.52–0.08 (86%)attempts 11–4goals 2–0
- Karlsson – Howden – Holtz6:22
xG 0.21–0.03 (87%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Pearson – Kolesar – Roy10:13
xG 0.49–0.34 (59%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Hertl – Olofsson – Holtz3:28
xG 0.02–0.12 (16%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Pietrangelo – Theodore2:14
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- McNabb – Theodore18:14
xG 0.35–0.37 (49%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Hanifin14:57
xG 0.43–0.61 (41%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – O'Reilly – Hinostroza10:37
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0
- Novak – L'Heureux – Svechkov7:46
xG 0.36–0.17 (68%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Sissons – McCarron11:38
xG 0.24–0.28 (46%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Stamkos – Marchessault – Forsberg11:46
xG 0.53–0.78 (41%)attempts 10–17goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Barron16:47
xG 0.58–0.13 (81%)attempts 15–6goals 3–0
- Skjei – Blankenburg14:53
xG 0.62–0.55 (53%)attempts 13–17goals 1–1
- Schenn – Stastney15:20
xG 0.51–0.69 (43%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).