Tue, Jan 14, 2025·Delta Center, Salt Lake City
Montréal Canadiens 5, Utah Hockey Club 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Hockey Club win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 13 | 212 | 212 | 527 |
| UTA | 214 | 06 | 15 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:11UTAJosh DoanPPAssists: Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.44 xG0–1
- P1 3:18MTLMike MathesonAssists: Cole Caufield, Lane Hutson · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 19:06UTANick BjugstadAssists: Michael Kesselring, Matias Maccelli · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 10:40MTLPatrik LaineAssists: Alex Newhook, Alexandre Carrier · Snap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 18:34MTLKirby DachAssists: Lane Hutson · Backhand, 0.19 xG3–2
- P3 3:07UTALogan CooleyAssists: Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 6:33MTLCole CaufieldGWGAssists: Lane Hutson, Mike Matheson · Tip-in, 0.11 xG4–3
- P3 16:15MTLKirby DachAssists: Alexandre Carrier · Snap, 0.03 xG5–3
Penalties (14)
- P1 0:29MTLMichael Pezzetta: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P1 1:04MTLMike Matheson: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:37MTLPatrik Laine: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:05MTLKirby Dach: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:21UTAJack McBain: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:58UTAOlli Maatta: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:54UTAMichael Kesselring: Misconduct10 min
- P2 6:54MTLArber Xhekaj: Misconduct10 min
- P2 7:35UTABarrett Hayton: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:52UTAMatias Maccelli: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:52MTLJosh Anderson: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:57MTLBrendan Gallagher: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:56MTLJuraj Slafkovský: Interference2 min
- P3 13:21UTAMikhail Sergachev: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Evans won the faceoff against McBain
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestLaine – Dach – Newhook8:50
xG 0.35–0.25 (58%)attempts 8–9goals 2–0
- Armia – Evans – Pezzetta2:44
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský9:15
xG 0.38–0.43 (46%)attempts 7–7goals 2–0
- Gallagher – Anderson – Dvorak6:30
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 1–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarrier – Guhle13:18
xG 0.89–0.29 (76%)attempts 21–12goals 2–1
- Xhekaj – Hutson2:03
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Savard – Xhekaj4:52
xG 0.23–0.25 (47%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Utah Hockey Club
Forward lines
- bestHayton – Maccelli – Doan6:33
xG 0.80–0.06 (93%)attempts 11–2goals 0–1
- Bjugstad – Crouse – McBain5:33
xG 0.38–0.13 (75%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Keller – Cooley9:57
xG 0.65–0.49 (57%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Kerfoot – Stenlund – Carcone5:44
xG 0.06–0.20 (22%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Marino5:27
xG 0.81–0.30 (73%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Cole – Välimäki2:35
xG 0.36–0.07 (83%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
- Cole – Kesselring4:07
xG 0.29–0.11 (72%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
UTA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line UTA is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Hockey Club win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (UTA − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).