Wed, Jan 15, 2025·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Edmonton Oilers 5, Minnesota Wild 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 214 | 111 | 211 | 536 |
| MIN | 212 | 110 | 012 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:02MINMatt BoldyPPAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 16:11MINMarco RossiPPAssists: Matt Boldy, Mats Zuccarello · Snap, 0.16 xG0–2
- P1 16:32EDMZach HymanAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–2
- P1 18:28EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Evan Bouchard · Snap, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 4:09MINRyan HartmanAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–3
- P2 14:15EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Ty Emberson, Brett Kulak · Tip-in, 0.05 xG3–3
- P3 1:28EDMVasily PodkolzinGWGAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Joshua Brown · Tip-in, 0.01 xG4–3
- P3 12:49EDMConnor McDavidUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:58EDMDarnell Nurse: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 6:11EDMMattias Janmark: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:04EDMJoshua Brown: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 18:08MINDavid Jiricek: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 0:00MINRyan Hartman: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rossi won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestNugent-Hopkins – Arvidsson – Podkolzin9:26
xG 0.42–0.16 (72%)attempts 13–5goals 2–0
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid11:00
xG 0.78–0.71 (52%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
- Perry – Kapanen – Philp6:25
xG 0.18–0.15 (55%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Draisaitl – Arvidsson – Podkolzin2:56
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard17:16
xG 1.34–1.09 (55%)attempts 25–14goals 1–1
- Kulak – Emberson14:32
xG 0.50–0.33 (60%)attempts 17–12goals 2–0
- Kulak – Nurse2:30
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Hartman – Eriksson Ek9:08
xG 0.63–0.54 (54%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Foligno – Hartman – Eriksson Ek3:23
xG 0.10–0.07 (57%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Foligno – Gaudreau – Trenin7:45
xG 0.05–0.15 (26%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Shore – Jones – Khusnutdinov3:43
xG 0.07–0.24 (22%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Middleton18:58
xG 1.23–0.89 (58%)attempts 23–24goals 1–1
- Dermott – Jiricek8:32
xG 0.28–0.33 (46%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Chisholm17:22
xG 0.49–0.76 (39%)attempts 13–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).