Thu, Jan 16, 2025·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
New Jersey Devils 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 18 | 17 | 18 | 01 | 324 |
| TOR | 010 | 112 | 218 | 11 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:21NJDJack HughesAssists: Johnathan Kovacevic · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–0
- P2 6:14TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Max Domi, Chris Tanev · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 8:14NJDNico HischierPPAssists: Jesper Bratt, Jack Hughes · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 7:43TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: William Nylander, Bobby McMann · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P3 9:44NJDNico HischierPPAssists: Timo Meier, Jack Hughes · Wrist, 0.30 xG3–2
- P3 15:47TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Mitch Marner, Jake McCabe · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
- OT 1:10TORWilliam NylanderGWGAssists: Mitch Marner, Jake McCabe · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 14:03NJDPaul Cotter: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:23TORMitch Marner: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:05TOROliver Ekman-Larsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 7:21NJDJonas Siegenthaler: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 8:34TOROliver Ekman-Larsson: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Domi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Bratt – Hughes13:25
xG 0.69–0.40 (63%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
- Palat – Lazar – Bastian2:55
xG 0.22–0.17 (55%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- MacDermid – Lazar – Bastian4:07
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Tatar – Dowling – Cotter7:04
xG 0.09–0.29 (24%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPesce – Hughes19:20
xG 0.77–0.46 (63%)attempts 17–17goals 0–0
- Siegenthaler – Kovacevic19:09
xG 0.24–0.56 (30%)attempts 7–27goals 1–1
- Dillon – Hamilton13:07
xG 0.12–0.81 (13%)attempts 6–25goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMarner – Matthews – Knies15:05
xG 0.58–0.07 (89%)attempts 28–8goals 1–0
- Pacioretty – Holmberg – Robertson10:18
xG 0.41–0.13 (76%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Lorentz – Kampf – Dewar3:51
xG 0.17–0.18 (48%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Domi – Nylander – McMann15:50
xG 0.51–0.55 (48%)attempts 20–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – McCabe17:10
xG 0.77–0.47 (62%)attempts 21–17goals 2–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Timmins12:30
xG 0.33–0.11 (74%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Rielly6:28
xG 0.36–0.17 (68%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).