Thu, Jan 16, 2025·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Washington Capitals 1, Ottawa Senators 0 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 06 | 05 | 011 | 14 | 126 |
| OTT | 08 | 09 | 07 | 00 | 024 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- OT 3:07WSHAlex OvechkinGWGAssists: Rasmus Sandin · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:00WSHTom Wilson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 0:00OTTRidly Greig: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:20WSHNic Dowd: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:50WSHDylan Strome: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 1:55OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:55WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:19OTTClaude Giroux: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Pinto
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestDowd – Mangiapane – Duhaime9:55
xG 0.25–0.16 (61%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Wilson – Strome – McMichael8:03
xG 0.21–0.21 (50%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Strome – Protas2:28
xG 0.01–0.06 (8%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Wilson – Dubois – McMichael3:44
xG 0.07–0.15 (30%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Sandin8:27
xG 0.52–0.16 (76%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Roy – Sandin3:47
xG 0.20–0.02 (90%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Sandin3:32
xG 0.03–0.00 (98%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestCousins – Pinto – Greig10:46
xG 0.27–0.15 (65%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Amadio – Highmore – Ostapchuk4:56
xG 0.08–0.02 (82%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Giroux – Gaudette – Stützle7:57
xG 0.09–0.12 (43%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Norris – Batherson – Tkachuk11:37
xG 0.34–0.49 (41%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Kleven16:19
xG 0.45–0.32 (59%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Sebrango – Matinpalo10:00
xG 0.28–0.17 (63%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Sanderson – Zub15:02
xG 0.52–0.46 (53%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).