Thu, Jan 16, 2025·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
San Jose Sharks 1, Columbus Blue Jackets 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 06 | 02 | 111 | 119 |
| CBJ | 213 | 112 | 19 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:11CBJAdam FantilliAssists: Zach Werenski · Snap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 16:17CBJKent JohnsonGWGAssists: Sean Kuraly · Snap, 0.17 xG0–2
- P2 6:37CBJJames van RiemsdykAssists: Damon Severson, Kent Johnson · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–3
- P3 7:32SJSTyler ToffoliAssists: Macklin Celebrini · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–3
- P3 17:59CBJJames van RiemsdykENAssists: Kirill Marchenko · Wrist, 0.75 xG1–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:42CBJCole Sillinger: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:23SJSTyler Toffoli: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:37CBJDenton Mateychuk: Holding2 min
- P2 0:00CBJKent Johnson: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:27SJSTimothy Liljegren: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Del Bel Belluz won the faceoff against Dellandrea
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Eklund – Celebrini10:43
xG 0.83–0.34 (71%)attempts 19–11goals 1–1
- Wennberg – Kunin – Graf2:51
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Dellandrea – Sturm8:17
xG 0.26–0.13 (66%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Wennberg – Kunin – Smith5:06
xG 0.24–0.13 (65%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFerraro – Rutta2:44
xG 0.52–0.22 (70%)attempts 11–3goals 0–1
- Ceci – Walman15:53
xG 0.73–0.52 (58%)attempts 15–16goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Rutta11:03
xG 0.04–0.31 (11%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestKuraly – Labanc – Pyyhtia6:31
xG 0.43–0.21 (67%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Johnson – Sillinger10:08
xG 0.63–0.61 (50%)attempts 10–5goals 1–1
- Olivier – Aston-Reese – Del Bel Belluz8:59
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Marchenko – Voronkov – Fantilli10:22
xG 0.44–0.78 (36%)attempts 8–21goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Christiansen10:35
xG 1.01–0.20 (84%)attempts 9–7goals 2–0
- Werenski – Fabbro15:06
xG 1.11–0.50 (69%)attempts 21–9goals 0–0
- Severson – Werenski3:09
xG 0.16–0.01 (96%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).