Thu, Jan 16, 2025·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Seattle Kraken 1, Winnipeg Jets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 110 | 05 | 03 | 118 |
| WPG | 08 | 119 | 19 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:12SEAMatty BeniersAssists: Kaapo Kakko, Jaden Schwartz · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 9:35WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Kyle Connor, Josh Morrissey · Slap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 19:33WPGDylan DeMeloGWGAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 5:26WPGLogan Stanley: Elbowing2 min
- P2 9:01SEAJamie Oleksiak: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 12:25SEAMitchell Stephens: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beniers won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestHayden – Stephens – Kartye4:47
xG 0.18–0.04 (81%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Kakko – Beniers15:49
xG 0.65–0.66 (50%)attempts 18–21goals 1–0
- Stephenson – Bjorkstrand – Burakovsky12:00
xG 0.29–0.45 (40%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- McCann – Tolvanen – Wright11:25
xG 0.15–0.45 (25%)attempts 5–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Dunn18:23
xG 0.82–0.44 (65%)attempts 23–18goals 1–1
- Mahura – Evans2:07
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Montour – Dunn2:39
xG 0.12–0.28 (30%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLowry – Ehlers – Iafallo12:41
xG 0.83–0.25 (77%)attempts 27–11goals 1–0
- Toninato – Barron – Gustafsson4:21
xG 0.20–0.04 (84%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Kupari – Perfetti14:22
xG 0.28–0.32 (47%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi15:11
xG 0.12–0.69 (15%)attempts 7–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey18:26
xG 0.71–0.43 (62%)attempts 20–16goals 0–1
- Samberg – Pionk18:27
xG 0.57–0.31 (65%)attempts 24–14goals 0–0
- Stanley – Heinola10:56
xG 0.36–0.26 (59%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).