Thu, Jan 16, 2025·Delta Center, Salt Lake City
New York Rangers 5, Utah Hockey Club 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 28 | 06 | 311 | 525 |
| UTA | 215 | 18 | 08 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:01UTAMatias MaccelliAssists: Barrett Hayton, Ian Cole · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 3:42NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Alexis Lafrenière · Snap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 8:12UTAMatias MaccelliAssists: Barrett Hayton, Mikhail Sergachev · Poke, 0.17 xG1–2
- P1 16:25NYRArthur KaliyevAssists: Filip Chytil, Urho Vaakanainen · Poke, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 0:57UTALogan CooleyPPAssists: Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz · Slap, 0.21 xG2–3
- P3 0:28NYRReilly SmithSHAssists: Braden Schneider, Ryan Lindgren · Snap, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 10:22NYRChris KreiderGWGAssists: Sam Carrick · Snap, 0.08 xG4–3
- P3 19:22NYRArtemi PanarinENAssists: Sam Carrick, Adam Fox · Snap, 0.78 xG5–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 19:22NYRArthur Kaliyev: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:29NYRReilly Smith: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:39UTAMikhail Sergachev: Interference2 min
- P2 6:25UTAAlexander Kerfoot: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 0:00NYRAlexis Lafrenière: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:08UTAJuuso Välimäki: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against McBain
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestCarrick – Edstrom – Cuylle4:36
xG 0.24–0.09 (74%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Kreider – Chytil – Kaliyev6:57
xG 0.38–0.24 (61%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Smith – Zibanejad – Kaliyev2:12
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière11:56
xG 0.78–0.82 (49%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestVaakanainen – Schneider14:41
xG 0.99–0.40 (71%)attempts 20–12goals 1–0
- Borgen – Miller14:25
xG 0.75–0.88 (46%)attempts 16–19goals 1–1
- Fox – Lindgren13:10
xG 0.14–0.91 (13%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
Utah Hockey Club
Forward lines
- bestHayton – Maccelli – Doan9:00
xG 0.76–0.27 (74%)attempts 15–5goals 2–1
- Schmaltz – Keller – Cooley10:30
xG 0.77–0.33 (70%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Stenlund – Carcone9:39
xG 0.21–0.32 (40%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Crouse – McBain9:52
xG 0.46–0.63 (42%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Kesselring11:30
xG 1.35–0.25 (84%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
- Maatta – Kesselring2:27
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Marino – Sergachev3:35
xG 0.06–0.04 (59%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
UTA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line UTA is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (UTA − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).