Thu, Jan 16, 2025·Ball Arena, Denver
Edmonton Oilers 4, Colorado Avalanche 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 113 | 211 | 14 | 428 |
| COL | 36 | 09 | 010 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:17COLLogan O'ConnorAssists: Joel Kiviranta, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–1
- P1 10:04COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Calvin de Haan · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P1 11:48COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–3
- P1 19:18EDMViktor ArvidssonAssists: Darnell Nurse, Vasily Podkolzin · Slap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 6:17EDMBrett KulakUnassisted · Slap, 0.01 xG2–3
- P2 14:49EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 13:05EDMEvan BouchardGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Slap, 0.05 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:20COLMikko Rantanen: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:31EDMDarnell Nurse: Holding2 min
- P2 9:45COLNathan MacKinnon: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:44COLJuuso Parssinen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 5:08EDMNoah Philp: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:23COLParker Kelly: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Draisaitl – McDavid15:04
xG 1.21–0.61 (66%)attempts 22–13goals 2–1
- Nugent-Hopkins – Arvidsson – Podkolzin8:08
xG 0.38–0.30 (55%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
- Perry – Skinner – Philp5:17
xG 0.44–0.39 (53%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Henrique – Brown – Janmark6:43
xG 0.11–0.21 (34%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard15:48
xG 1.53–0.56 (73%)attempts 27–12goals 2–1
- Kulak – Nurse4:21
xG 0.01–0.00 (74%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Nurse – Stecher9:21
xG 0.22–0.42 (34%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- MacKinnon – Drouin – Rantanen2:05
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Rantanen – Colton – Mittelstadt2:30
xG 0.11–0.10 (51%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Colton – Kelly – Parssinen3:56
xG 0.01–0.04 (26%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Mittelstadt – Polin – Innala3:22
xG 0.24–0.29 (46%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Middleton10:11
xG 0.67–0.09 (88%)attempts 10–2goals 2–0
- Toews – Makar14:13
xG 0.66–0.62 (51%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
- de Haan – Girard3:05
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 1–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).