Sat, Jan 18, 2025·Prudential Center, Newark
Philadelphia Flyers 3, New Jersey Devils 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 06 | 15 | 27 | 318 |
| NJD | 13 | 04 | 06 | 113 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:17NJDDougie HamiltonAssists: Nathan Bastian, Tomas Tatar · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 1:56PHIMatvei MichkovAssists: Sean Couturier · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 12:44PHIBobby BrinkPPGWGAssists: Noah Cates, Tyson Foerster · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–1
- P3 19:58PHITravis KonecnyENAssists: Tyson Foerster, Noah Cates · Wrist, 0.68 xG3–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 6:32PHITravis Konecny: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:44NJDLuke Hughes: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:55PHIJamie Drysdale: Holding2 min
- P3 12:17NJDJonas Siegenthaler: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hughes won the faceoff against Cates
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCouturier – Farabee – Michkov10:19
xG 0.75–0.15 (84%)attempts 18–8goals 1–0
- Cates – Brink – Foerster10:57
xG 0.69–0.16 (82%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Laughton – Hathaway – Lycksell7:27
xG 0.21–0.15 (59%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Konecny – Tippett – Frost12:47
xG 0.21–0.15 (58%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – York16:26
xG 1.07–0.27 (80%)attempts 18–14goals 0–1
- Seeler – Drysdale12:31
xG 0.61–0.27 (69%)attempts 16–17goals 1–0
- Ristolainen – Zamula16:15
xG 0.19–0.10 (65%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestCotter – Mercer – Halonen8:49
xG 0.30–0.21 (59%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Tatar – Lazar – Bastian9:03
xG 0.04–0.12 (25%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Noesen – Meier – Hischier9:19
xG 0.08–0.30 (21%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Palat – Bratt – Hughes11:57
xG 0.12–0.78 (13%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hamilton – Siegenthaler2:08
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Pesce – Hughes15:50
xG 0.26–0.60 (30%)attempts 19–12goals 0–1
- Siegenthaler – Kovacevic12:50
xG 0.05–0.49 (9%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).