Sat, Jan 18, 2025·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Boston Bruins 5, Ottawa Senators 6 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 28 | 211 | 18 | 01 | 0 | 528 |
| OTT | 215 | 111 | 215 | 03 | 1 | 644 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:47OTTAdam GaudetteAssists: Nick Jensen, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–1
- P1 7:35OTTTim StützleUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P1 11:07BOSPavel ZachaPPAssists: David Pastrnak, Mason Lohrei · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–2
- P1 19:22BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Morgan Geekie, Mason Lohrei · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 1:06BOSMorgan GeekieAssists: Pavel Zacha, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–2
- P2 5:41OTTJosh NorrisPPAssists: Jake Sanderson, Tim Stützle · Tip-in, 0.05 xG3–3
- P2 14:38BOSJohn BeecherAssists: Mark Kastelic · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–3
- P3 11:23BOSVinni LettieriAssists: Justin Brazeau, Jordan Oesterle · Wrist, 0.21 xG5–3
- P3 16:47OTTNick JensenAssists: Shane Pinto, Drake Batherson · Snap, 0.09 xG5–4
- P3 19:48OTTJosh NorrisAssists: Claude Giroux, Thomas Chabot · Snap, 0.16 xG5–5
Shootout
- 1. OTT Tim Stützle scored
- 2. BOS Charlie Coyle stopped
- 3. OTT Drake Batherson stopped
- 4. BOS David Pastrnak stopped
- 5. OTT Claude Giroux stopped
- 6. BOS Pavel Zacha stopped
Penalties (13)
- P1 10:32OTTJosh Norris: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 11:07BOSElias Lindholm: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 5:27BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 5:27OTTNick Cousins: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:27BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:32OTTZack Ostapchuk: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:32BOSMark Kastelic: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:32OTTZack Ostapchuk: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:10OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:10BOSParker Wotherspoon: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:10OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:45BOSNikita Zadorov: Interference2 min
- P3 9:08OTTTyler Kleven: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestCoyle – Frederic – Poitras6:45
xG 0.31–0.14 (68%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Pastrnak – Zacha – Geekie10:15
xG 0.35–0.24 (59%)attempts 8–16goals 2–0
- Brazeau – Kastelic – Beecher4:37
xG 0.01–0.17 (7%)attempts 1–4goals 1–0
- Marchand – Lindholm – Lettieri7:43
xG 0.17–0.54 (23%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOesterle – Lohrei7:49
xG 0.43–0.08 (85%)attempts 13–7goals 2–0
- Zadorov – Carlo14:02
xG 0.43–0.33 (56%)attempts 11–18goals 1–1
- Wotherspoon – Peeke13:46
xG 0.15–0.52 (22%)attempts 7–23goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Gaudette – Stützle6:22
xG 0.69–0.21 (76%)attempts 15–5goals 2–0
- Amadio – Highmore – Ostapchuk4:25
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Giroux – Tkachuk – Stützle3:01
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Norris – Batherson – Tkachuk7:50
xG 0.32–0.22 (59%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Chabot14:15
xG 0.82–0.13 (86%)attempts 24–10goals 1–0
- Sanderson – Zub14:02
xG 0.64–0.44 (59%)attempts 27–13goals 0–3
- Kleven – Matinpalo9:46
xG 0.30–0.24 (56%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).