Sat, Jan 18, 2025·UBS Arena, Elmont
San Jose Sharks 1, New York Islanders 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 04 | 17 | 08 | 119 |
| NYI | 010 | 314 | 17 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:47NYIMathew BarzalUnassisted · Backhand, 0.20 xG0–1
- P2 10:02SJSBarclay GoodrowAssists: Jan Rutta · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 10:42NYIBrock NelsonGWGAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Adam Pelech · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
- P2 19:33NYINoah DobsonAssists: Mathew Barzal, Bo Horvat · Slap, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 1:03NYIRyan PulockAssists: Anthony Duclair, Brock Nelson · Slap, 0.02 xG1–4
Penalties (2)
- P1 16:32SJSTy Dellandrea: Holding2 min
- P2 3:29NYIRyan Pulock: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Wennberg – Kunin – Grundstrom10:39
xG 0.48–0.44 (52%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
- Goodrow – Sturm – Graf7:15
xG 0.10–0.39 (21%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Granlund – Zetterlund – Smith13:10
xG 0.39–0.72 (35%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
- Dellandrea – Eklund – Celebrini13:29
xG 0.43–0.81 (34%)attempts 17–20goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Ferraro5:24
xG 0.39–0.07 (84%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Ferraro – Rutta7:05
xG 0.21–0.04 (85%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Walman – Thrun2:42
xG 0.09–0.06 (59%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Nelson – Duclair11:07
xG 0.62–0.13 (83%)attempts 16–10goals 2–0
- Lee – Horvat – Barzal14:22
xG 0.98–0.49 (67%)attempts 21–16goals 2–0
- Engvall – MacLean – Gatcomb9:37
xG 0.42–0.05 (89%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Cizikas – Pageau – Holmstrom10:36
xG 0.64–0.49 (57%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDobson – Romanov19:19
xG 1.09–0.15 (88%)attempts 27–11goals 1–1
- Mayfield – George10:15
xG 0.85–0.05 (94%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Pelech – Pulock14:40
xG 0.48–0.60 (45%)attempts 16–21goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).