Sat, Jan 18, 2025·United Center, Chicago
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Chicago Blackhawks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 15 | 217 | 013 | 335 |
| CHI | 313 | 13 | 17 | 523 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:29VGKVictor OlofssonAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Tomas Hertl · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 16:00CHILukas ReichelAssists: Nick Foligno, Colton Dach · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P1 16:40CHITyler BertuzziPPAssists: Seth Jones, Teuvo Teravainen · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–2
- P1 19:42CHITaylor HallAssists: Patrick Maroon, Ryan Donato · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–3
- P2 8:10VGKTomas HertlAssists: Shea Theodore, Ilya Samsonov · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
- P2 14:42VGKTomas HertlPPAssists: Shea Theodore, Jack Eichel · Tip-in, 0.05 xG3–3
- P2 18:58CHISeth JonesGWGAssists: Connor Bedard, Frank Nazar · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–4
- P3 4:08CHITyler BertuzziPPAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Seth Jones · Snap, 0.26 xG3–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 16:14VGKAlex Pietrangelo: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 2:59VGKNicolas Hague: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:59CHIPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:51CHIAlex Vlasic: Boarding2 min
- P2 13:47CHITJ Brodie: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 4:03VGKTomas Hertl: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 14:16CHIPatrick Maroon: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:16VGKNicolas Hague: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:16CHIPatrick Maroon: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:16CHIPatrick Maroon: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:59VGKMark Stone: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Dickinson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Olofsson – Dorofeyev5:49
xG 0.39–0.02 (94%)attempts 8–5goals 2–0
- Barbashev – Kolesar – Roy3:43
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Stone – Barbashev – Eichel5:02
xG 0.20–0.07 (73%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Stone – Karlsson – Howden4:16
xG 0.20–0.08 (72%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- McNabb – Theodore17:26
xG 0.44–0.46 (49%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Hague – Whitecloud10:39
xG 0.34–0.38 (48%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Pietrangelo – Hanifin17:54
xG 1.04–1.17 (47%)attempts 23–21goals 0–2
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Hall – Donato7:30
xG 0.84–0.37 (69%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
- Foligno – Reichel – Dach9:45
xG 0.34–0.30 (53%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- Hall – Donato – Bedard2:24
xG 0.02–0.08 (22%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Dickinson – Mikheyev10:35
xG 0.20–0.44 (31%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Kaiser11:58
xG 0.59–0.39 (61%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
- Martinez – Jones17:16
xG 0.63–0.60 (51%)attempts 14–24goals 1–1
- Vlasic – Crevier18:04
xG 0.77–0.86 (47%)attempts 14–21goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).