Sat, Jan 18, 2025·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Minnesota Wild 2, Nashville Predators 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 94% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 17 | 011 | 111 | 229 |
| NSH | 217 | 213 | 28 | 638 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:23MINDavid JiricekAssists: Matt Boldy, Marco Rossi · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 8:22NSHColton SissonsAssists: Michael McCarron, Luke Schenn · Snap, 0.23 xG1–1
- P1 17:29NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Roman Josi · Poke, 0.19 xG1–2
- P2 0:54NSHSteven StamkosGWGAssists: Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–3
- P2 2:07NSHFedor SvechkovAssists: Tommy Novak · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–4
- P3 2:28MINMatt BoldyPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello · Snap, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 16:20NSHFilip ForsbergUnassisted · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–5
- P3 18:11NSHBrady SkjeiENAssists: Filip Forsberg, Jonathan Marchessault · Wrist, 0.79 xG2–6
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:54NSHZachary L'Heureux: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:54MINYakov Trenin: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:56MINMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:56NSHLuke Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:05MINMatt Boldy: Tripping2 min
- P1 2:50NSHFilip Forsberg: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:24NSHMark Jankowski: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:24MINRyan Hartman: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:36MINBrock Faber: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 5:34NSHBrady Skjei: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:58MINBrock Faber: Broken stick2 min
- P2 19:15NSHLuke Schenn: Interference2 min
- P3 1:43NSHAdam Wilsby: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Rossi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Eriksson Ek – Boldy2:01
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Foligno – Gaudreau – Trenin6:08
xG 0.01–0.10 (11%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Hartman – Eriksson Ek – Ohgren6:01
xG 0.12–0.22 (36%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Shore – Lauko – Khusnutdinov4:39
xG 0.05–0.32 (13%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Bogosian – Chisholm13:35
xG 0.37–0.73 (34%)attempts 12–13goals 0–3
- Middleton – Faber16:52
xG 0.42–1.30 (25%)attempts 14–20goals 0–0
- Merrill – Jiricek9:16
xG 0.12–1.33 (8%)attempts 4–17goals 1–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Marchessault – Forsberg11:47
xG 1.16–0.51 (69%)attempts 20–13goals 2–0
- Sissons – Novak – Svechkov3:12
xG 0.47–0.01 (98%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Sissons – McCarron – L'Heureux8:14
xG 0.51–0.35 (60%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Nyquist – O'Reilly – Hinostroza7:22
xG 0.10–0.27 (28%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Blankenburg13:31
xG 1.35–0.58 (70%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Schenn – Wilsby12:24
xG 0.73–0.09 (89%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Josi – Barron14:27
xG 0.80–0.57 (58%)attempts 19–14goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 94% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).