Sat, Jan 18, 2025·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Edmonton Oilers 2, Vancouver Canucks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 07 | 25 | 03 | 215 |
| VAN | 316 | 05 | 06 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:38VANQuinn HughesPPAssists: J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 15:49VANDanton HeinenAssists: Tyler Myers, Phillip Di Giuseppe · Snap, 0.36 xG0–2
- P1 18:00VANQuinn HughesPPGWGAssists: J.T. Miller, Brock Boeser · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–3
- P2 4:01EDMLeon DraisaitlUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 13:38EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.11 xG2–3
Penalties (18)
- P1 14:32EDMEvan Bouchard: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 17:19EDMMattias Ekholm: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:24EDMDarnell Nurse: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:42VANCarson Soucy: Interference2 min
- P2 12:42VANKiefer Sherwood: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:20EDMMattias Ekholm: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:57EDMConnor McDavid: Match penalty5 min
- P3 19:57VANTyler Myers: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:57EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:57EDMZach Hyman: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:57VANConor Garland: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:57VANElias Pettersson: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:57EDMEvan Bouchard: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:57EDMMattias Ekholm: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:57EDMLeon Draisaitl: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:57VANDerek Forbort: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:57VANJ.T. Miller: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:57VANTyler Myers: Match penalty5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Miller won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Draisaitl – McDavid11:49
xG 0.60–0.05 (92%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Arvidsson – Podkolzin3:23
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid4:45
xG 0.11–0.10 (52%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Henrique – Brown – Janmark4:17
xG 0.02–0.01 (63%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard17:55
xG 0.58–0.29 (66%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Kulak – Emberson5:24
xG 0.25–0.07 (78%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Kulak – Stecher2:59
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- Di Giuseppe – Hoglander – Sasson6:36
xG 0.13–0.11 (54%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Blueger – Heinen – Sherwood9:14
xG 0.03–0.11 (22%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Boeser – DeBrusk – Pettersson10:41
xG 0.17–0.25 (40%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Miller – Garland – Suter10:45
xG 0.23–0.51 (30%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Soucy13:03
xG 0.65–0.40 (62%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Forbort – Desharnais10:24
xG 0.10–0.03 (78%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Hughes2:13
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).