Sun, Jan 19, 2025·Centre Bell, Montreal
New York Rangers 4, Montréal Canadiens 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 25 | 214 | 06 | 03 | 428 |
| MTL | 19 | 210 | 116 | 12 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:17NYRAlexis LafrenièreAssists: K'Andre Miller · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 13:52MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Christian Dvorak, Josh Anderson · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 14:38NYRWill CuylleUnassisted · Snap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 5:07MTLChristian DvorakAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Alex Newhook · Snap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 10:24NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Adam Fox, Artemi Panarin · Snap, 0.06 xG3–2
- P2 15:05MTLNick SuzukiUnassisted · Snap, 0.12 xG3–3
- P2 16:20NYRChris KreiderAssists: Adam Fox, Ryan Lindgren · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–3
- P3 12:52MTLJuraj SlafkovskýAssists: Cole Caufield, Lane Hutson · Snap, 0.21 xG4–4
- OT 3:20MTLPatrik LaineGWGAssists: Kaiden Guhle, Jake Evans · Snap, 0.39 xG4–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 14:43MTLJosh Anderson: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:43NYRAdam Edstrom: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:43MTLBrendan Gallagher: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:43NYRBraden Schneider: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:58NYRMatt Rempe: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:58NYRMatt Rempe: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:58MTLArber Xhekaj: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:38MTLKaiden Guhle: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:38MTLKaiden Guhle: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:38NYRFilip Chytil: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:42MTLJosh Anderson: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:26NYRAdam Fox: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 4:59NYRUrho Vaakanainen: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Dvorak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Chytil – Kaliyev9:55
xG 0.71–0.52 (58%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Panarin – Chytil – Lafrenière2:17
xG 0.27–0.10 (72%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Carrick – Edstrom – Rempe6:28
xG 0.05–0.14 (25%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Smith – Zibanejad – Cuylle10:39
xG 0.32–0.61 (35%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren15:51
xG 0.94–0.83 (53%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Vaakanainen – Schneider11:21
xG 0.25–0.58 (30%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
- Borgen – Miller15:54
xG 0.49–1.05 (32%)attempts 12–17goals 1–2
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský11:43
xG 1.34–0.13 (91%)attempts 20–5goals 1–1
- Gallagher – Anderson – Dvorak10:17
xG 0.72–0.56 (56%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Armia – Evans – Beck7:30
xG 0.21–0.32 (39%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Laine – Dach – Newhook13:22
xG 0.44–0.64 (40%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Hutson16:42
xG 1.79–0.45 (80%)attempts 26–16goals 1–1
- Carrier – Guhle17:32
xG 1.03–0.56 (65%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Savard – Xhekaj9:11
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).