Sun, Jan 19, 2025·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Detroit Red Wings 1, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 08 | 014 | 112 | 134 |
| DAL | 310 | 07 | 18 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:26DALMatěj BlümelAssists: Justin Hryckowian, Colin Blackwell · Snap, 0.28 xG0–1
- P1 13:05DALJason RobertsonPPGWGAssists: Matt Duchene, Miro Heiskanen · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–2
- P1 14:18DALMavrik BourqueAssists: Ilya Lyubushkin, Matt Duchene · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–3
- P3 12:01DETMarco KasperAssists: Simon Edvinsson, Dylan Larkin · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 14:09DALWyatt JohnstonAssists: Jason Robertson · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 0:24DALEvgenii Dadonov: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:43DETJonatan Berggren: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:25DALNils Lundkvist: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:22DALBrendan Smith: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnston won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestLarkin – Raymond – Kasper14:09
xG 1.13–0.35 (76%)attempts 23–7goals 1–0
- Tarasenko – Compher – Rasmussen8:44
xG 0.33–0.11 (76%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Compher – Berggren3:32
xG 0.32–0.09 (78%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Copp – DeBrincat – Berggren8:08
xG 0.39–0.19 (67%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChiarot – Seider16:37
xG 0.90–0.37 (71%)attempts 22–14goals 0–0
- Johansson – Edvinsson18:40
xG 0.66–0.54 (55%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- Holl – Gustafsson14:14
xG 0.60–1.06 (36%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBlackwell – Blümel – Hryckowian7:30
xG 0.93–0.24 (79%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Steel – Bäck – Stankoven12:09
xG 0.54–0.23 (70%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Benn – Duchene – Bourque11:36
xG 0.49–0.18 (73%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Robertson – Johnston11:33
xG 0.47–0.95 (33%)attempts 8–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Lundkvist14:12
xG 1.37–0.88 (61%)attempts 14–19goals 1–0
- Lyubushkin – Harley16:50
xG 0.76–0.27 (74%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
- Lindell – Heiskanen17:47
xG 0.28–0.93 (23%)attempts 10–22goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).