Mon, Jan 20, 2025·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Buffalo Sabres 4, Seattle Kraken 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 112 | 210 | 17 | 429 |
| SEA | 210 | 213 | 211 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:07BUFJack QuinnAssists: Owen Power, Peyton Krebs · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 5:34SEAJohn HaydenAssists: Mitchell Stephens, Ryker Evans · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 11:06SEAChandler StephensonAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Ryker Evans · Snap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 6:41SEAMatty BeniersPPAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Vince Dunn · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–3
- P2 9:31BUFJason ZuckerPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Tage Thompson · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–3
- P2 15:38BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Mattias Samuelsson, Peyton Krebs · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
- P2 16:34SEAJamie OleksiakAssists: Shane Wright, Jared McCann · Snap, 0.12 xG3–4
- P3 10:25SEAAdam LarssonGWGAssists: Jared McCann, Eeli Tolvanen · Slap, 0.05 xG3–5
- P3 18:39BUFAlex TuchAssists: Jason Zucker, Dylan Cozens · Snap, 0.30 xG4–5
- P3 18:56SEAJared McCannENAssists: Jamie Oleksiak, Adam Larsson · Wrist, 0.40 xG4–6
Penalties (5)
- P2 0:19BUFJiri Kulich: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:20SEAMitchell Stephens: Holding2 min
- P2 5:19BUFZach Benson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:17SEAEeli Tolvanen: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:57SEAAndre Burakovsky: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beniers won the faceoff against Kulich
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestZucker – Thompson – Kulich10:32
xG 0.86–0.38 (70%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
- Krebs – Quinn – Benson8:32
xG 0.39–0.34 (53%)attempts 13–7goals 1–1
- Tuch – Cozens – Peterka6:56
xG 0.24–0.21 (53%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Aube-Kubel – Lafferty – Malenstyn4:49
xG 0.09–0.16 (36%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDahlin – Power3:02
xG 0.33–0.10 (77%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Clifton – Bryson10:20
xG 0.22–0.37 (38%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
- Dahlin – Byram13:49
xG 0.59–0.80 (43%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestStephenson – Bjorkstrand – Burakovsky9:37
xG 0.52–0.17 (76%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- McCann – Tolvanen – Wright8:13
xG 0.64–0.30 (68%)attempts 11–9goals 2–1
- Hayden – Stephens – Tanev6:18
xG 0.19–0.21 (48%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Schwartz – Kakko – Beniers12:02
xG 0.59–0.62 (49%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Mahura12:10
xG 0.62–0.20 (75%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Montour – Evans18:21
xG 1.00–0.67 (60%)attempts 18–19goals 2–2
- Larsson – Dunn15:55
xG 0.69–0.68 (50%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).