Mon, Jan 20, 2025·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
St. Louis Blues 5, Vegas Golden Knights 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 216 | 25 | 06 | 01 | 2 | 528 |
| VGK | 113 | 110 | 29 | 00 | 1 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:25STLBrayden SchennAssists: Dylan Holloway, Jordan Kyrou · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 14:09VGKTomas HertlPPAssists: Pavel Dorofeyev, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–1
- P1 19:43STLNathan WalkerAssists: Philip Broberg, Radek Faksa · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 6:31STLJake NeighboursAssists: Robert Thomas, Colton Parayko · Snap, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 7:25VGKBrett HowdenAssists: Shea Theodore, Brayden McNabb · Snap, 0.12 xG3–2
- P2 19:29STLCam FowlerPPAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Pavel Buchnevich · Slap, 0.04 xG4–2
- P3 16:50VGKJack EichelAssists: Shea Theodore, Alex Pietrangelo · Slap, 0.04 xG4–3
- P3 19:30VGKPavel DorofeyevAssists: Shea Theodore, Jack Eichel · Slap, 0.05 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. STL Jake Neighbours scored
- 2. VGK Victor Olofsson stopped
- 3. STL Brayden Schenn scored
- 4. VGK Jack Eichel scored
- 5. STL Dylan Holloway stopped
- 6. VGK Pavel Dorofeyev stopped
Penalties (4)
- P1 13:00STLJustin Faulk: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 17:15VGKBrett Howden: Elbowing2 min
- P2 12:47STLDylan Holloway: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:02VGKAlexander Holtz: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSaad – Thomas – Neighbours10:33
xG 0.69–0.40 (63%)attempts 10–14goals 1–1
- Faksa – Walker – Joseph8:28
xG 0.23–0.18 (56%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Sundqvist – Buchnevich – Toropchenko11:07
xG 0.17–0.56 (23%)attempts 7–18goals 0–0
- Schenn – Kyrou – Holloway13:26
xG 0.17–0.78 (18%)attempts 10–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Suter – Broberg12:34
xG 0.47–0.59 (44%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
- Fowler – Parayko20:24
xG 0.54–0.73 (42%)attempts 14–26goals 1–0
- Faulk – Tucker10:54
xG 0.14–0.62 (19%)attempts 7–21goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKarlsson – Howden – Holtz10:23
xG 0.76–0.45 (63%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
- Pearson – Kolesar – Roy9:45
xG 0.42–0.15 (73%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Stone – Barbashev – Eichel12:48
xG 0.57–0.32 (64%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Hertl – Olofsson – Dorofeyev10:51
xG 0.27–0.32 (45%)attempts 9–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHague – Whitecloud12:16
xG 0.82–0.18 (82%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Hanifin12:23
xG 0.66–0.56 (54%)attempts 18–12goals 0–2
- Pietrangelo – Hague4:36
xG 0.10–0.01 (90%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).