Mon, Jan 20, 2025·UBS Arena, Elmont
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 17 | 09 | 010 | 126 |
| NYI | 06 | 312 | 07 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:52CBJKent JohnsonPPAssists: Kirill Marchenko, Dmitri Voronkov · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 0:43NYIBo HorvatAssists: Mathew Barzal, Adam Pelech · Snap, 0.22 xG1–1
- P2 2:57NYISimon HolmstromSHGWGAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 5:47NYIBo HorvatPPAssists: Mathew Barzal, Noah Dobson · Snap, 0.14 xG1–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:16NYIAnders Lee: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 1:31NYICasey Cizikas: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:56CBJAdam Fantilli: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 9:48NYIIsaiah George: Holding2 min
- P2 14:51NYICasey Cizikas: Holding2 min
- P3 3:31CBJJustin Danforth: Holding2 min
- P3 8:47CBJSean Kuraly: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:47NYIPierre Engvall: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sillinger won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Johnson – Sillinger9:17
xG 0.39–0.30 (57%)attempts 10–18goals 0–0
- Olivier – Aston-Reese – Del Bel Belluz9:27
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Marchenko – Voronkov – Fantilli10:51
xG 0.35–0.52 (40%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
- Kuraly – Danforth – Pyyhtia5:50
xG 0.03–0.27 (10%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Christiansen7:09
xG 0.13–0.04 (77%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Provorov – Christiansen2:30
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–0
- Werenski – Fabbro16:14
xG 0.51–0.60 (46%)attempts 19–18goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Horvat – Barzal10:50
xG 0.94–0.31 (75%)attempts 23–7goals 1–0
- Engvall – MacLean – Gatcomb6:42
xG 0.19–0.05 (81%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Cizikas – Pageau – Holmstrom8:46
xG 0.14–0.05 (74%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Nelson – Duclair10:07
xG 0.34–0.39 (46%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock13:49
xG 0.98–0.37 (73%)attempts 24–12goals 1–0
- Dobson – Romanov11:57
xG 0.16–0.10 (60%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Mayfield – George7:40
xG 0.06–0.07 (45%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).