Mon, Jan 20, 2025·Delta Center, Salt Lake City
Winnipeg Jets 2, Utah Hockey Club 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Hockey Club win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 011 | 06 | 28 | 225 |
| UTA | 010 | 210 | 38 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 16:00UTAOlli MaattaAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Clayton Keller · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 19:42UTALogan CooleyAssists: Barrett Hayton · Snap, 0.13 xG0–2
- P3 4:53UTABarrett HaytonGWGAssists: Josh Doan, Kevin Stenlund · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–3
- P3 8:04UTAMatias MaccelliAssists: Josh Doan, Barrett Hayton · Slap, 0.14 xG0–4
- P3 8:32WPGNino NiederreiterAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Mark Scheifele · Snap, 0.06 xG1–4
- P3 11:48WPGDylan DeMeloAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Dylan Samberg · Slap, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 17:55UTAClayton KellerENAssists: Nick Schmaltz · Snap, 0.59 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P2 0:35WPGNeal Pionk: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:49WPGDylan DeMelo: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:55UTAMichael Kesselring: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:55WPGMark Scheifele: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:55UTAMichael Kesselring: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:55WPGMark Scheifele: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against McBain
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestNamestnikov – Ehlers – Iafallo3:32
xG 0.28–0.04 (88%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Scheifele – Ehlers2:26
xG 0.14–0.08 (63%)attempts 4–2goals 2–0
- Lowry – Ehlers – Iafallo3:57
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Kupari – Perfetti3:20
xG 0.16–0.16 (50%)attempts 7–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Miller – Stanley11:23
xG 0.33–0.31 (52%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Samberg5:09
xG 0.19–0.21 (49%)attempts 12–3goals 1–1
- Samberg – Pionk12:30
xG 0.31–0.36 (46%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
Utah Hockey Club
Forward lines
- bestBjugstad – Crouse – McBain11:40
xG 0.77–0.51 (60%)attempts 17–19goals 0–1
- Schmaltz – Keller – Cooley11:05
xG 0.39–0.27 (59%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Hayton – Maccelli – Doan9:54
xG 0.37–0.31 (54%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Kerfoot – O'Brien – Stenlund7:06
xG 0.11–0.28 (28%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Marino15:33
xG 0.67–0.40 (63%)attempts 16–19goals 1–1
- Välimäki – DeSimone10:48
xG 0.23–0.13 (64%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Cole – Kesselring16:48
xG 0.78–0.96 (45%)attempts 19–22goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
UTA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line UTA is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Hockey Club win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (UTA − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).