Tue, Jan 21, 2025·Madison Square Garden, New York
Ottawa Senators 0, New York Rangers 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 05 | 07 | 08 | 020 |
| NYR | 110 | 110 | 39 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:48NYRAlexis LafrenièreGWGAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Adam Fox · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 1:50NYRArthur KaliyevAssists: Urho Vaakanainen, Braden Schneider · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P3 3:34NYRMatt RempeAssists: Adam Edstrom, Sam Carrick · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–3
- P3 9:01NYRArtemi PanarinPPAssists: Adam Fox, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–4
- P3 9:57NYRWill CuyllePPAssists: Alexis Lafrenière, K'Andre Miller · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–5
Penalties (12)
- P2 5:50NYRWill Borgen: Interference2 min
- P2 13:08NYRFilip Chytil: Holding2 min
- P2 16:16OTTTim Stützle: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:09NYRIgor Shesterkin: Goalie leave crease2 min
- P3 7:09OTTBrady Tkachuk: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 7:09OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:09OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:09NYRMatt Rempe: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:09NYRMatt Rempe: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:09OTTShane Pinto: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:37OTTMichael Amadio: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 16:26OTTNikolas Matinpalo: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestCousins – Pinto – Greig2:58
xG 0.08–0.00 (98%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Batherson – Tkachuk – Pinto5:03
xG 0.03–0.04 (43%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Giroux – Gaudette – Stützle4:21
xG 0.03–0.07 (34%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Amadio – Highmore – Ostapchuk4:29
xG 0.00–0.17 (1%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Chabot – Zub2:28
xG 0.02–0.12 (13%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Jensen – Chabot15:57
xG 0.43–0.54 (44%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
- Kleven – Matinpalo11:54
xG 0.13–0.30 (30%)attempts 14–11goals 0–2
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestCarrick – Edstrom – Rempe6:58
xG 0.33–0.11 (75%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Trocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière9:41
xG 0.51–0.33 (61%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Smith – Zibanejad – Cuylle10:23
xG 0.27–0.12 (70%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Kreider – Chytil – Kaliyev7:20
xG 0.03–0.12 (20%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren12:24
xG 0.60–0.28 (68%)attempts 13–12goals 2–0
- Borgen – Miller16:35
xG 0.38–0.32 (54%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Vaakanainen – Schneider13:15
xG 0.26–0.55 (32%)attempts 11–21goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).