Tue, Jan 21, 2025·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Dallas Stars 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 07 | 16 | 16 | 219 |
| DAL | 04 | 07 | 112 | 123 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 17:07CARJesperi KotkaniemiAssists: Martin Necas · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P3 10:11DALThomas HarleyAssists: Wyatt Johnston, Miro Heiskanen · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–1
- P3 10:35CARJesperi KotkaniemiGWGAssists: Sean Walker, Eric Robinson · Deflected, 0.16 xG2–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:43CARAndrei Svechnikov: Slashing2 min
- P1 7:25DALBrendan Smith: Holding2 min
- P1 8:28DALSam Steel: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 7:59CARAndrei Svechnikov: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:42DALJamie Benn: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:51CARSean Walker: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stankoven won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestNecas – Robinson – Kotkaniemi9:34
xG 0.79–0.50 (61%)attempts 11–7goals 2–1
- Staal – Martinook – Jarvis9:14
xG 0.25–0.39 (39%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Aho – Svechnikov – Blake12:34
xG 0.20–0.39 (34%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Roslovic – Drury – Jaaska5:07
xG 0.00–0.64 (0%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Walker2:35
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Orlov – Chatfield17:03
xG 0.48–0.66 (42%)attempts 10–19goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Walker10:57
xG 0.80–1.06 (43%)attempts 12–11goals 2–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Duchene – Bourque12:32
xG 1.02–0.52 (66%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Hintz – Steel – Stankoven8:43
xG 0.36–0.03 (93%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Bäck – Blümel3:47
xG 0.03–0.04 (40%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Robertson – Johnston8:52
xG 0.34–0.42 (45%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHeiskanen – Harley5:16
xG 0.67–0.04 (95%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Lindell – Lyubushkin4:05
xG 0.56–0.02 (97%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Lyubushkin – Harley9:41
xG 0.62–0.32 (66%)attempts 13–6goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).