Tue, Jan 21, 2025·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Buffalo Sabres 3, Vancouver Canucks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 17 | 09 | 210 | 326 |
| VAN | 08 | 213 | 013 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:34BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Jiri Kulich · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 3:05VANPhillip Di GiuseppeAssists: Carson Soucy, J.T. Miller · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 10:29VANElias PetterssonAssists: Quinn Hughes, Brock Boeser · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 8:42BUFJiri KulichAssists: JJ Peterka, Rasmus Dahlin · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 13:33BUFJJ PeterkaGWGAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Jiri Kulich · Slap, 0.11 xG3–2
Penalties (3)
- P2 3:45BUFJack Quinn: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:58VANQuinn Hughes: Holding2 min
- P3 0:27VANCarson Soucy: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Miller won the faceoff against Kulich
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Peterka – Kulich14:13
xG 1.16–0.69 (62%)attempts 27–12goals 3–1
- Tuch – Cozens – Kozak10:54
xG 0.46–0.35 (57%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Krebs – Quinn – Benson12:25
xG 0.28–0.21 (58%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Lafferty – Malenstyn – Kozak2:06
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDahlin – Byram13:44
xG 1.04–0.28 (79%)attempts 22–7goals 3–0
- Jokiharju – Dahlin3:05
xG 0.20–0.03 (86%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Byram – Power2:28
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBoeser – DeBrusk – Pettersson11:14
xG 1.19–0.48 (71%)attempts 16–12goals 1–1
- Blueger – Heinen – Sherwood10:20
xG 0.24–0.24 (50%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Di Giuseppe – Hoglander – Sasson7:24
xG 0.08–0.30 (20%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Miller – Garland – Suter12:01
xG 0.33–0.77 (30%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDesharnais – Hughes3:43
xG 0.80–0.08 (91%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Soucy – Friedman2:01
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Forbort – Friedman2:11
xG 0.04–0.06 (40%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).