Tue, Jan 21, 2025·Honda Center, Anaheim
Florida Panthers 5, Anaheim Ducks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 315 | 07 | 27 | 529 |
| ANA | 212 | 010 | 08 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:57ANAFrank VatranoPPAssists: Troy Terry, Ryan Strome · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 8:58FLASam ReinhartAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 17:57FLAEvan RodriguesAssists: A.J. Greer, Tomas Nosek · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P1 18:49FLACarter VerhaegheGWGAssists: Mackie Samoskevich · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P1 19:12ANAMason McTavishAssists: Radko Gudas · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 0:19FLASam BennettAssists: Mackie Samoskevich, Niko Mikkola · Snap, 0.14 xG4–2
- P3 4:17FLAUvis BalinskisAssists: Tomas Nosek, Carter Verhaeghe · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:12FLAEvan Rodrigues: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 9:22FLASam Bennett: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:46ANAJacob Trouba: Interference2 min
- P2 2:04ANARobby Fabbri: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:45ANARobby Fabbri: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bennett won the faceoff against Carlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBennett – Luostarinen – Samoskevich10:47
xG 0.77–0.19 (80%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Barkov – Reinhart – Tkachuk12:35
xG 0.56–0.06 (91%)attempts 19–3goals 1–0
- Verhaeghe – Boqvist – Lundell9:13
xG 0.17–0.13 (57%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Nosek – Greer – Rodrigues8:29
xG 0.28–0.90 (23%)attempts 5–18goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBjornfot – Balinskis13:00
xG 0.54–0.16 (77%)attempts 12–10goals 3–1
- Kulikov – Forsling14:55
xG 0.43–0.35 (55%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Mikkola16:19
xG 0.77–1.00 (43%)attempts 16–23goals 1–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Vatrano – Terry13:34
xG 0.63–0.48 (57%)attempts 19–15goals 0–1
- Harkins – Leason – Nesterenko6:19
xG 0.18–0.12 (60%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Fabbri – McTavish – Gauthier11:38
xG 0.30–0.41 (42%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
- Killorn – Zegras – Carlsson11:03
xG 0.27–0.72 (27%)attempts 12–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – LaCombe18:01
xG 1.12–0.67 (63%)attempts 27–19goals 1–1
- Trouba – Mintyukov14:07
xG 0.46–0.48 (49%)attempts 15–7goals 0–2
- Gudas – Zellweger2:00
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).