Wed, Jan 22, 2025·Ball Arena, Denver
Winnipeg Jets 3, Colorado Avalanche 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 08 | 29 | 07 | 11 | 325 |
| COL | 09 | 110 | 18 | 00 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:09COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Devon Toews, Jonathan Drouin · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 10:56WPGMorgan BarronAssists: David Gustafsson, Josh Morrissey · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 18:44WPGGabriel VilardiAssists: Josh Morrissey, Vladislav Namestnikov · Deflected, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 7:05COLCale MakarAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Jonathan Drouin · Snap, 0.23 xG2–2
- OT 0:17WPGNeal PionkGWGAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Connor Hellebuyck · Slap, 0.08 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:41WPGCole Perfetti: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:45COLJosh Manson: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:12WPGMason Appleton: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:12COLKeaton Middleton: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:47WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kelly won the faceoff against Namestnikov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestNamestnikov – Ehlers – Vilardi10:21
xG 0.45–0.38 (54%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Iafallo11:54
xG 0.57–0.73 (44%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
- Appleton – Barron – Gustafsson7:10
xG 0.20–0.39 (34%)attempts 4–5goals 1–1
- Niederreiter – Kupari – Perfetti9:46
xG 0.14–0.83 (15%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Morrissey – Pionk4:08
xG 0.02–0.17 (9%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Fleury – Stanley10:22
xG 0.16–0.31 (33%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey13:23
xG 0.91–1.30 (41%)attempts 12–15goals 1–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacKinnon – Drouin – Rantanen15:32
xG 1.72–1.00 (63%)attempts 29–13goals 2–1
- Kelly – O'Connor – Kiviranta10:36
xG 0.64–0.20 (76%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – Colton – Mittelstadt10:33
xG 0.32–0.21 (61%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Parssinen – Ivan – Innala5:07
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar15:11
xG 1.63–0.66 (71%)attempts 27–11goals 0–0
- Girard – Makar2:25
xG 0.32–0.11 (74%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Manson – Toews2:31
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).