Wed, Jan 22, 2025·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Florida Panthers 1, Los Angeles Kings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 05 | 117 | 06 | 128 |
| LAK | 08 | 06 | 214 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:27FLAEvan RodriguesPPAssists: Anton Lundell, Mackie Samoskevich · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P3 6:41LAKSamuel HeleniusAssists: Tanner Jeannot, Jordan Spence · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 13:12LAKAdrian KempeGWGAssists: Kevin Fiala, Brandt Clarke · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 9:52FLAAleksander Barkov: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:15FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:03LAKWarren Foegele: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:50LAKPhillip Danault: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bennett won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBarkov – Reinhart – Tkachuk14:02
xG 0.28–0.19 (60%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Bennett – Luostarinen – Samoskevich9:55
xG 0.24–0.37 (39%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Nosek – Greer – Rodrigues6:03
xG 0.16–0.35 (31%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Verhaeghe – Boqvist – Lundell8:19
xG 0.09–0.63 (13%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Kulikov – Forsling17:53
xG 0.44–0.63 (41%)attempts 20–15goals 0–0
- Bjornfot – Balinskis9:46
xG 0.28–0.50 (36%)attempts 6–8goals 0–2
- Schmidt – Mikkola14:29
xG 0.27–0.80 (26%)attempts 13–19goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKopitar – Fiala – Kempe4:21
xG 0.49–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 1–0
- Danault – Fiala – Thomas6:48
xG 0.34–0.13 (72%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Lewis – Jeannot – Helenius5:45
xG 0.26–0.16 (62%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Foegele – Moore – Byfield12:37
xG 0.31–0.27 (53%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdmundson – Spence18:23
xG 1.09–0.41 (73%)attempts 25–15goals 1–0
- Gavrikov – Anderson18:05
xG 0.73–0.46 (61%)attempts 17–21goals 0–0
- Moverare – Clarke9:39
xG 0.30–0.25 (55%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).