Thu, Jan 23, 2025·TD Garden, Boston
Ottawa Senators 0, Boston Bruins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 011 | 08 | 010 | 029 |
| BOS | 07 | 112 | 17 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:06BOSMorgan GeekieGWGAssists: David Pastrnak, Brandon Carlo · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–1
- P3 19:55BOSDavid PastrnakENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.70 xG0–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:54BOSJohn Beecher: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 14:30BOSMorgan Geekie: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:47OTTThomas Chabot: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:18OTTArtem Zub: Interference2 min
- P3 9:21BOSNikita Zadorov: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:49BOSPatrick Brown: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 19:55OTTBrady Tkachuk: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:55BOSNikita Zadorov: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Pinto
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Batherson – Stützle5:40
xG 0.50–0.32 (61%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Cousins – Batherson – Stützle4:25
xG 0.17–0.14 (55%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Cousins – Amadio – Pinto2:56
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Batherson – Tkachuk – Stützle2:09
xG 0.15–0.19 (44%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Matinpalo2:41
xG 0.23–0.03 (87%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Kleven – Zub16:30
xG 0.66–0.60 (52%)attempts 15–23goals 0–0
- Sebrango – Matinpalo6:36
xG 0.27–0.49 (35%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestMarchand – Coyle – Poitras6:02
xG 0.59–0.05 (92%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Pastrnak – Zacha – Geekie12:05
xG 0.49–0.10 (83%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Brown – Jones – Beecher3:02
xG 0.12–0.00 (96%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Frederic – Lettieri5:20
xG 0.18–0.15 (54%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWotherspoon – Lohrei14:36
xG 1.16–0.58 (67%)attempts 24–16goals 0–0
- Zadorov – Peeke14:18
xG 0.67–0.21 (76%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Carlo – Callahan11:47
xG 0.42–0.59 (42%)attempts 10–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).