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Ice Lab

Thu, Jan 23, 2025·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary

Buffalo Sabres 2, Calgary Flames 5

Away

Buffalo Sabres

2

Final

Home

Calgary Flames

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 74% of the time.

CGY winsBUF wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
BUF01421109234
CGY1718311526

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 12:00CGYJonathan HuberdeauSHAssists: Brayden Pachal · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
  2. P2 2:50BUFMattias SamuelssonAssists: Henri Jokiharju, Sam Lafferty · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
  3. P2 7:18BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Mattias Samuelsson, JJ Peterka · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–1
  4. P2 10:31CGYNazem KadriAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Jakob Pelletier · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–2
  5. P3 3:29CGYJakob PelletierGWGAssists: Brayden Pachal, Nazem Kadri · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–3
  6. P3 17:15CGYYegor SharangovichENAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Nazem Kadri · Tip-in, 0.82 xG2–4
  7. P3 17:52CGYMikael BacklundENAssists: Blake Coleman · Wrist, 0.80 xG2–5
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 10:53CGYMatt Coronato: Interference2 min
  2. P1 15:58CGYJonathan Huberdeau: Roughing2 min
  3. P1 15:58BUFJack Quinn: Roughing2 min
  4. P2 10:48BUFConnor Clifton: Interference2 min
  5. P2 11:14CGYNazem Kadri: Holding2 min
  6. P2 17:55CGYRasmus Andersson: Holding2 min
  7. P3 8:53CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Fighting5 min
  8. P3 8:53BUFPeyton Krebs: Fighting5 min
  9. P3 11:19CGYJakob Pelletier: Slashing2 min
  10. P3 15:04CGYNazem Kadri: Delaying game face off violation2 min
  11. P3 17:43CGYDaniil Miromanov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  12. P3 18:09BUFSam Lafferty: Cross checking2 min
  13. P3 18:09CGYKevin Bahl: Misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BUF00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CGY
43% to win57% to win
← BUF attackCGY attack →
  1. P1 20:00Kulich won the faceoff against Backlund
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BUFCGY
34Shots on goal26
3.6Expected goals5.2
77Shot attempts55
41Faceoffs won26
6Power plays2
11Penalty minutes29
20Hits19
14Blocked shots19
14Giveaways17
2Takeaways5

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Buffalo Sabres

Forward lines

  1. bestThompson – Peterka – Kulich10:33

    xG 0.96–0.48 (66%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0

  2. Krebs – Quinn – Benson10:19

    xG 0.73–0.46 (62%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0

  3. Lafferty – Malenstyn – Cozens2:09

    xG 0.31–0.13 (71%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0

  4. Lafferty – Malenstyn – Kozak2:22

    xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestJokiharju – Samuelsson3:07

    xG 0.50–0.02 (97%)attempts 9–1goals 1–0

  2. Dahlin – Byram10:49

    xG 0.38–0.01 (98%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0

  3. Jokiharju – Power2:40

    xG 0.32–0.18 (63%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0

Calgary Flames

Forward lines

  1. bestKadri – Huberdeau – Pelletier7:13

    xG 0.40–0.07 (85%)attempts 8–5goals 2–0

  2. Bishop – Lomberg – Pelletier2:19

    xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0

  3. Kadri – Huberdeau – Pospisil5:02

    xG 0.10–0.09 (52%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0

  4. Pospisil – Sharangovich – Kuzmenko2:31

    xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestWeegar – Miromanov14:33

    xG 0.37–0.25 (59%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0

  2. Bean – Pachal12:17

    xG 0.48–0.78 (38%)attempts 9–20goals 1–0

  3. Andersson – Bahl13:43

    xG 0.69–1.49 (32%)attempts 13–25goals 0–2

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CGY 5.2 xGBUF 3.6 xG
0123456P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CGYBUF

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.

Excitement 57/100 · #554 of 1312 this seasonSwing 1.53 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 32% (winner's lowest chance)
BUF 100%5050%50CGY 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +25 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 74% of the time.

CGY winsBUF wins

Simulated goal difference (CGY − BUF), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).