Thu, Jan 23, 2025·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Vancouver Canucks 2, Edmonton Oilers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 96% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 011 | 24 | 011 | 226 |
| EDM | 313 | 214 | 17 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:52EDMZach HymanAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Viktor Arvidsson · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 14:21EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Snap, 0.14 xG0–2
- P1 14:41EDMAdam HenriqueGWGAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Corey Perry · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–3
- P2 1:59EDMZach HymanAssists: Noah Philp · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–4
- P2 12:02EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard · Snap, 0.23 xG0–5
- P2 12:27VANBrock BoeserAssists: J.T. Miller, Pius Suter · Snap, 0.05 xG1–5
- P2 15:06VANFilip HronekAssists: Quinn Hughes, Brock Boeser · Slap, 0.02 xG2–5
- P3 10:21EDMKasperi KapanenAssists: Ty Emberson · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–6
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:34VANKiefer Sherwood: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:22VANVincent Desharnais: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:36VANVincent Desharnais: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:53VANConor Garland: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:53EDMDarnell Nurse: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:53VANConor Garland: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:53EDMCorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:59VANVincent Desharnais: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 1:47VANTeddy Blueger: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:47EDMTroy Stecher: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:36VANMark Friedman: Misconduct10 min
- P3 5:11EDMMattias Janmark: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:11VANCarson Soucy: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Miller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestDi Giuseppe – Blueger – Heinen2:33
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Blueger – Heinen – Sherwood3:34
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–1
- Di Giuseppe – Karlsson – Sasson3:25
xG 0.05–0.24 (18%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- DeBrusk – Garland – Pettersson7:57
xG 0.30–0.63 (32%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFriedman – Desharnais2:04
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Soucy – Desharnais2:54
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Soucy – Hughes4:47
xG 0.08–0.07 (53%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Henrique – Hyman8:45
xG 0.35–0.12 (75%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Skinner – Kapanen – Philp5:02
xG 0.24–0.02 (92%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Draisaitl – Arvidsson – Podkolzin8:13
xG 0.25–0.15 (63%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Nugent-Hopkins – Brown – Janmark11:10
xG 0.32–0.43 (42%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulak – Emberson7:24
xG 1.01–0.09 (92%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
- Ekholm – Bouchard12:17
xG 0.73–0.30 (71%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Kulak – Nurse8:47
xG 0.44–0.10 (82%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 96% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).