Thu, Jan 23, 2025·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Washington Capitals 3, Seattle Kraken 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 95% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 015 | 210 | 18 | 333 |
| SEA | 09 | 04 | 09 | 022 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:36WSHAliaksei ProtasGWGUnassisted · Other, 1.00 xG1–0
- P2 18:05WSHEthen FrankUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–0
- P3 16:32WSHAlex OvechkinENAssists: Trevor van Riemsdyk, Jakob Chychrun · Wrist, 0.41 xG3–0
Penalties (1)
- P2 13:12WSHTaylor Raddysh: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beniers won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Dubois – Protas13:49
xG 1.97–0.40 (83%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Eller – Raddysh – Frank9:08
xG 0.82–0.25 (77%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Dowd – Mangiapane – Duhaime10:28
xG 0.40–0.07 (85%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Strome – McMichael14:08
xG 0.57–0.42 (58%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Chychrun15:38
xG 1.79–0.35 (84%)attempts 18–19goals 1–0
- Roy – Fehérváry13:45
xG 1.46–0.33 (82%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Carlson – Sandin16:40
xG 0.59–0.37 (62%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen – Wright3:33
xG 0.12–0.20 (37%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- McCann – Tolvanen – Wright6:32
xG 0.12–0.23 (35%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Stephenson – Bjorkstrand – Burakovsky7:35
xG 0.04–0.23 (16%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Burakovsky – McCann – Tanev2:05
xG 0.00–0.56 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Dunn2:52
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Mahura14:46
xG 0.35–0.65 (35%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
- Montour – Evans18:06
xG 0.60–0.98 (38%)attempts 20–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 95% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).