Thu, Jan 23, 2025·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Nashville Predators 6, San Jose Sharks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 312 | 211 | 115 | 638 |
| SJS | 211 | 311 | 013 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:58NSHGustav NyquistPPAssists: Tommy Novak, Brady Skjei · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 4:52NSHTommy NovakAssists: Zachary L'Heureux, Fedor Svechkov · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P1 6:53NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Justin Barron · Tip-in, 0.02 xG3–0
- P1 8:12SJSWalker DuehrAssists: Nikolai Kovalenko, Mario Ferraro · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–1
- P1 16:34SJSMario FerraroAssists: Mikael Granlund, Timothy Liljegren · Snap, 0.09 xG3–2
- P2 1:38NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Colton Sissons, Brady Skjei · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG4–2
- P2 7:07NSHSteven StamkosPPAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.20 xG5–2
- P2 12:39SJSHenry ThrunAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Nikolai Kovalenko · Wrist, 0.09 xG5–3
- P2 13:54SJSFabian ZetterlundAssists: Will Smith, Mikael Granlund · Backhand, 0.07 xG5–4
- P2 15:21SJSMacklin CelebriniPPAssists: Mikael Granlund, William Eklund · Snap, 0.14 xG5–5
- P3 8:16NSHFedor SvechkovPPGWGAssists: Brady Skjei, Zachary L'Heureux · Wrist, 0.04 xG6–5
Penalties (16)
- P1 2:09SJSFabian Zetterlund: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 6:54NSHCole Smith: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:54SJSLuke Kunin: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:56SJSBarclay Goodrow: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:56NSHMichael McCarron: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:58SJSTy Dellandrea: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:58NSHZachary L'Heureux: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:49SJSMikael Granlund: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:17NSHSteven Stamkos: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:13NSHCole Smith: Match penalty5 min · PPG
- P2 14:13SJSTimothy Liljegren: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:13NSHMichael McCarron: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:48SJSHenry Thrun: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 6:36SJSBarclay Goodrow: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:23SJSJan Rutta: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 12:24NSHSteven Stamkos: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McCarron won the faceoff against Kunin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNovak – L'Heureux – Svechkov5:55
xG 0.83–0.17 (83%)attempts 16–2goals 1–1
- Stamkos – Marchessault – Forsberg6:26
xG 0.46–0.39 (54%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Sissons – McCarron – L'Heureux2:03
xG 0.09–0.05 (66%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Nyquist – O'Reilly – Hinostroza6:38
xG 0.14–0.13 (51%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Wilsby9:25
xG 0.48–0.10 (83%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Skjei – Blankenburg13:31
xG 0.84–0.52 (62%)attempts 17–17goals 2–2
- Josi – Barron13:18
xG 0.58–0.34 (63%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestWennberg – Kovalenko – Duehr6:44
xG 0.20–0.02 (89%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Toffoli – Eklund – Celebrini8:45
xG 0.28–0.32 (47%)attempts 12–7goals 0–2
- Granlund – Zetterlund – Smith8:45
xG 0.40–0.51 (44%)attempts 10–12goals 2–0
- Goodrow – Kunin – Dellandrea6:42
xG 0.10–0.76 (12%)attempts 1–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFerraro – Liljegren11:39
xG 0.63–0.31 (67%)attempts 12–10goals 3–0
- Ceci – Ferraro2:49
xG 0.00–0.34 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Ceci – Walman11:06
xG 0.37–0.81 (31%)attempts 16–16goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).