Fri, Jan 24, 2025·United Center, Chicago
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Chicago Blackhawks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 112 | 110 | 117 | 11 | 440 |
| CHI | 25 | 18 | 01 | 00 | 314 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:59TBLMitchell ChaffeePPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 16:29CHIColton DachAssists: Ryan Donato, Nick Foligno · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 18:47CHIFrank NazarAssists: Connor Bedard · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 4:59CHILouis CrevierAssists: Frank Nazar, Lukas Reichel · Snap, 0.07 xG1–3
- P2 19:52TBLNick PaulAssists: Victor Hedman, Brandon Hagel · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 19:18TBLJake GuentzelPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Darren Raddysh · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–3
- OT 0:58TBLNikita KucherovPPGWGAssists: Victor Hedman, Jake Guentzel · Slap, 0.10 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 10:35CHIColton Dach: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:55TBLDarren Raddysh: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:12TBLNikita Kucherov: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:34CHIAlec Martinez: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 19:56CHITeuvo Teravainen: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Bedard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGuentzel – Cirelli – Hagel3:42
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Cirelli – Hagel – Eyssimont4:42
xG 0.32–0.08 (79%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Paul – Point3:52
xG 0.11–0.01 (91%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Girgensons – Paul – Geekie8:03
xG 0.37–0.27 (58%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Crozier12:17
xG 0.98–0.60 (62%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
- McDonagh – Raddysh5:36
xG 0.26–0.01 (97%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Crozier – Lilleberg4:54
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Donato – Kurashev9:04
xG 0.69–0.27 (72%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Dickinson – Mikheyev11:31
xG 0.36–0.39 (48%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Foligno – Reichel – Dach7:56
xG 0.13–0.25 (33%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Nazar – Bedard13:12
xG 0.40–0.94 (30%)attempts 7–23goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Del Mastro13:54
xG 0.59–0.34 (63%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Crevier14:24
xG 0.52–0.39 (57%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
- Martinez – Brodie2:21
xG 0.01–0.16 (6%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).