Fri, Jan 24, 2025·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 18 | 15 | 18 | 321 |
| DAL | 16 | 315 | 06 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:04VGKJack EichelPPAssists: Mark Stone · Slap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 6:19DALRoope HintzPPAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Logan Stankoven · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 7:31DALJason RobertsonAssists: Matt Duchene, Wyatt Johnston · Snap, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 8:57VGKShea TheodorePPAssists: Tomas Hertl, Mark Stone · Snap, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 16:18DALJamie BennAssists: Matt Duchene, Miro Heiskanen · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–3
- P2 17:54DALJason RobertsonGWGAssists: Wyatt Johnston, Evgenii Dadonov · Snap, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 10:35VGKJack EichelAssists: Brayden McNabb, Mark Stone · Snap, 0.19 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:33DALJamie Benn: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 5:07VGKNicolas Hague: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 4:59VGKNoah Hanifin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:35DALSam Steel: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 12:12DALEsa Lindell: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Stankoven
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStone – Barbashev – Eichel14:48
xG 0.68–0.50 (58%)attempts 22–14goals 1–0
- Kolesar – Roy – Brisson6:56
xG 0.02–0.25 (9%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Pearson – Kolesar – Roy2:43
xG 0.00–0.26 (0%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Hertl – Olofsson – Dorofeyev9:26
xG 0.35–0.65 (35%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore18:40
xG 0.94–0.56 (63%)attempts 22–14goals 1–0
- Pietrangelo – Hanifin16:35
xG 0.40–0.95 (29%)attempts 13–22goals 0–1
- Hague – Whitecloud9:14
xG 0.11–0.81 (12%)attempts 6–17goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Duchene – Bourque12:33
xG 0.66–0.26 (72%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Hintz – Steel – Stankoven12:34
xG 0.80–0.44 (65%)attempts 21–11goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Robertson – Johnston11:20
xG 0.61–0.67 (48%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestLindell – Lyubushkin7:01
xG 0.46–0.03 (94%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Dumba – Bichsel7:16
xG 0.62–0.30 (67%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Lindell – Heiskanen6:39
xG 0.40–0.12 (76%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).