Fri, Jan 24, 2025·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Utah Hockey Club 2, Winnipeg Jets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 05 | 19 | 15 | 219 |
| WPG | 110 | 111 | 38 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:52WPGCole PerfettiPPAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Gabriel Vilardi · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 1:13UTANick SchmaltzPPAssists: Michael Kesselring, Clayton Keller · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 8:48WPGDavid GustafssonAssists: Dylan DeMelo · Snap, 0.18 xG1–2
- P3 1:19UTABarrett HaytonAssists: John Marino, Clayton Keller · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 5:51WPGCole PerfettiGWGAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Dylan DeMelo · Snap, 0.26 xG2–3
- P3 12:16WPGNikolaj EhlersUnassisted · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 18:15WPGCole PerfettiENAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Neal Pionk · Wrist, 0.81 xG2–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 17:04UTAMatias Maccelli: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 19:46WPGGabriel Vilardi: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 15:17WPGDylan DeMelo: Interference2 min
- P3 18:41WPGMorgan Barron: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McBain won the faceoff against Kupari
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Utah Hockey Club
Forward lines
- bestHayton – Maccelli – Doan7:16
xG 0.32–0.09 (78%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Hayton – Doan2:34
xG 0.08–0.02 (84%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Stenlund – Carcone8:33
xG 0.14–0.35 (29%)attempts 4–15goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Keller – Cooley15:25
xG 0.55–0.88 (38%)attempts 16–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Maatta – Marino16:23
xG 0.79–0.79 (50%)attempts 19–16goals 1–0
- Välimäki – DeSimone11:52
xG 0.16–0.41 (28%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Cole – Kesselring13:41
xG 0.18–0.64 (22%)attempts 10–22goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestNiederreiter – Appleton – Kupari10:50
xG 1.00–0.32 (76%)attempts 22–5goals 0–0
- Iafallo – Barron – Gustafsson6:55
xG 0.30–0.03 (91%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi13:29
xG 0.60–0.47 (56%)attempts 16–19goals 0–1
- Namestnikov – Ehlers – Perfetti11:21
xG 0.41–0.35 (54%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey18:07
xG 1.18–0.62 (65%)attempts 26–16goals 1–1
- Fleury – Stanley13:34
xG 0.73–0.32 (69%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Samberg – Pionk15:12
xG 0.50–0.29 (63%)attempts 22–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it UTA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − UTA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).