Sat, Jan 25, 2025·Centre Bell, Montreal
New Jersey Devils 4, Montréal Canadiens 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 212 | 116 | 013 | 13 | 444 |
| MTL | 06 | 216 | 17 | 03 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:52NJDNico HischierAssists: Jesper Bratt, Stefan Noesen · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 17:48NJDJesper BrattAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Brenden Dillon · Snap, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 3:50MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Cole Caufield, Juraj Slafkovský · Snap, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 12:56NJDTomas TatarAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Curtis Lazar · Snap, 0.35 xG3–1
- P2 17:05MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Nick Suzuki, Juraj Slafkovský · Snap, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 3:34MTLAlexandre CarrierAssists: Kaiden Guhle, Nick Suzuki · Slap, 0.03 xG3–3
- OT 4:06NJDJack HughesGWGAssists: Timo Meier · Snap, 0.30 xG4–3
Penalties (2)
- P1 8:25NJDBrenden Dillon: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 8:33MTLMike Matheson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Evans
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Lazar – Bastian8:10
xG 0.78–0.08 (91%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Noesen – Meier – Mercer4:44
xG 0.70–0.08 (90%)attempts 15–2goals 0–0
- Noesen – Bratt – Hischier8:04
xG 0.61–0.12 (84%)attempts 17–3goals 2–0
- Palat – Bratt – Hughes2:53
xG 0.25–0.03 (91%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPesce – Hughes19:50
xG 1.77–0.96 (65%)attempts 29–23goals 0–0
- Dillon – Hamilton16:03
xG 0.92–0.97 (49%)attempts 19–20goals 2–2
- Siegenthaler – Kovacevic17:05
xG 0.88–1.03 (46%)attempts 30–21goals 1–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský13:14
xG 1.07–0.94 (53%)attempts 15–20goals 3–0
- Gallagher – Dvorak – Pezzetta6:30
xG 0.41–0.34 (54%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Armia – Anderson – Evans10:22
xG 0.39–0.94 (30%)attempts 8–19goals 0–2
- Laine – Dach – Newhook12:17
xG 0.52–1.30 (29%)attempts 13–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarrier – Guhle19:30
xG 1.72–1.02 (63%)attempts 28–25goals 2–1
- Savard – Xhekaj11:06
xG 0.41–0.84 (33%)attempts 13–17goals 0–0
- Matheson – Hutson19:04
xG 0.78–1.72 (31%)attempts 21–34goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).