Sat, Jan 25, 2025·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Calgary Flames 5, Minnesota Wild 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 15 | 214 | 210 | 529 |
| MIN | 15 | 07 | 313 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:58CGYAndrei KuzmenkoPPAssists: Nazem Kadri, MacKenzie Weegar · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 9:34MINJoel Eriksson EkAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Kirill Kaprizov · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 12:28CGYMartin PospisilAssists: Andrei Kuzmenko, Yegor Sharangovich · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 19:52CGYRasmus AnderssonPPAssists: Mikael Backlund, Martin Pospisil · Snap, 0.18 xG3–1
- P3 11:53CGYClark BishopAssists: Ryan Lomberg · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–1
- P3 14:15MINFrederick GaudreauPPAssists: Ryan Hartman, Marco Rossi · Wrist, 0.25 xG4–2
- P3 14:29CGYAndrei KuzmenkoGWGAssists: Yegor Sharangovich, MacKenzie Weegar · Wrap-around, 0.02 xG5–2
- P3 18:46MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Marco Rossi, Matt Boldy · Wrist, 0.16 xG5–3
- P3 19:33MINMats ZuccarelloAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Marco Rossi · Tip-in, 0.17 xG5–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 5:01MINJake Middleton: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:40MINJakub Lauko: Boarding2 min
- P2 4:40MINYakov Trenin: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:40CGYRasmus Andersson: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:23CGYJoel Hanley: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:02MINJakub Lauko: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:02CGYRyan Lomberg: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:49MINMarc-Andre Fleury: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:49MINMats Zuccarello: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:49CGYRasmus Andersson: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:49CGYJonathan Huberdeau: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:17MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 12:40CGYBlake Coleman: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Coronato13:40
xG 0.72–0.35 (67%)attempts 19–11goals 0–1
- Pospisil – Sharangovich – Kuzmenko6:12
xG 0.33–0.24 (58%)attempts 8–7goals 2–0
- Bishop – Lomberg – Rooney2:07
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 1–0
- Lomberg – Pospisil – Sharangovich2:56
xG 0.01–0.01 (53%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Pachal5:02
xG 0.41–0.10 (80%)attempts 10–4goals 2–0
- Andersson – Miromanov2:48
xG 0.21–0.04 (83%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Weegar – Miromanov12:50
xG 0.36–0.24 (60%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Boldy – Rossi4:24
xG 0.32–0.05 (87%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Zuccarello – Eriksson Ek – Kaprizov13:47
xG 0.52–0.35 (60%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
- Trenin – Lauko – Khusnutdinov5:59
xG 0.09–0.03 (77%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Hartman – Gaudreau – Ohgren3:04
xG 0.09–0.09 (51%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Merrill11:04
xG 0.40–0.13 (75%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Middleton – Faber18:44
xG 0.63–0.77 (45%)attempts 20–19goals 0–2
- Spurgeon – Chisholm14:54
xG 0.19–0.56 (26%)attempts 7–21goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).