Sat, Jan 25, 2025·Honda Center, Anaheim
Nashville Predators 2, Anaheim Ducks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 110 | 118 | 015 | 243 |
| ANA | 215 | 314 | 06 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:15ANAPavel MintyukovAssists: Brett Leason, Jansen Harkins · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 14:50NSHGustav NyquistAssists: Filip Forsberg · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 19:55ANAMason McTavishAssists: Alex Killorn, Trevor Zegras · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 5:07NSHRyan O'ReillyAssists: Filip Forsberg, Adam Wilsby · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–2
- P2 10:46ANAJansen HarkinsGWGAssists: Radko Gudas, Brett Leason · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P2 11:48ANATrevor ZegrasAssists: Drew Helleson, Brian Dumoulin · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–4
- P2 14:20ANAMason McTavishPPAssists: Troy Terry, Jackson LaCombe · Slap, 0.11 xG2–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:07NSHBrady Skjei: Interference2 min
- P1 15:46ANATroy Terry: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:51ANAJacob Trouba: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:10ANAPavel Mintyukov: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:33NSHSteven Stamkos: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lundeström won the faceoff against McCarron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Marchessault – Forsberg8:07
xG 1.58–0.49 (76%)attempts 15–14goals 0–1
- Nyquist – O'Reilly – Forsberg5:06
xG 0.74–0.24 (75%)attempts 11–6goals 2–0
- Stamkos – Marchessault – Novak2:06
xG 0.25–0.31 (44%)attempts 10–3goals 0–1
- Novak – L'Heureux – Svechkov2:20
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Blankenburg3:47
xG 0.86–0.23 (79%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Schenn – Wilsby3:58
xG 0.40–0.05 (89%)attempts 4–7goals 1–1
- Barron – Wilsby2:13
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Zegras – Carlsson9:00
xG 0.84–0.51 (62%)attempts 14–6goals 1–1
- Killorn – Zegras – McTavish2:07
xG 0.15–0.20 (42%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
- Strome – Vatrano – Terry11:09
xG 0.70–0.76 (48%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Harkins – Lundeström – Leason8:36
xG 0.24–0.35 (41%)attempts 12–10goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – LaCombe12:39
xG 1.10–0.96 (53%)attempts 18–20goals 2–1
- Trouba – Mintyukov13:26
xG 0.69–0.63 (52%)attempts 14–17goals 1–0
- Dumoulin – Helleson14:11
xG 0.18–1.65 (10%)attempts 11–19goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).