Sun, Jan 26, 2025·Madison Square Garden, New York
Colorado Avalanche 5, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 313 | 16 | 13 | 522 |
| NYR | 210 | 113 | 114 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:43COLJack DruryAssists: Keaton Middleton, Jonathan Drouin · Tip-in, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 6:26COLCale MakarAssists: Martin Necas, Nathan MacKinnon · Snap, 0.15 xG2–0
- P1 7:10NYRSam CarrickAssists: Matt Rempe, Urho Vaakanainen · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P1 8:36NYRVincent TrocheckAssists: Alexis Lafrenière, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P1 14:36COLCale MakarPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Martin Necas · Snap, 0.08 xG3–2
- P2 16:01COLJuuso ParssinenAssists: Casey Mittelstadt · Snap, 0.10 xG4–2
- P2 18:05NYRWill BorgenAssists: Reilly Smith, Will Cuylle · Poke, 0.17 xG4–3
- P3 15:02NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–4
- P3 19:45COLArtturi LehkonenGWGAssists: Cale Makar · Snap, 0.12 xG5–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 14:13NYRAdam Fox: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 8:28NYRAdam Edstrom: Interference2 min
- P3 1:40COLCasey Mittelstadt: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:36COLCale Makar: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – Mittelstadt – Parssinen11:58
xG 0.40–0.22 (65%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- MacKinnon – Drouin – Necas14:42
xG 0.84–0.82 (51%)attempts 22–14goals 1–2
- Wood – Colton – Drury7:52
xG 0.58–0.81 (42%)attempts 4–18goals 0–1
- Kelly – O'Connor – Kiviranta9:17
xG 0.08–0.66 (11%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Girard16:13
xG 0.79–0.58 (58%)attempts 18–17goals 1–1
- Manson – Malinski2:28
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Toews – Makar18:39
xG 0.83–1.04 (44%)attempts 15–26goals 1–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Zibanejad – Cuylle10:02
xG 0.86–0.30 (74%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Kreider – Chytil – Kaliyev9:54
xG 0.60–0.15 (80%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Carrick – Edstrom – Rempe6:57
xG 0.27–0.02 (92%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Trocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière16:11
xG 0.71–1.24 (37%)attempts 19–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestVaakanainen – Schneider14:35
xG 0.72–0.36 (67%)attempts 15–17goals 1–1
- Borgen – Miller16:28
xG 1.14–0.83 (58%)attempts 24–18goals 2–3
- Fox – Lindgren14:53
xG 0.95–0.78 (55%)attempts 25–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).