Sun, Jan 26, 2025·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Utah Hockey Club 1, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 013 | 111 | 011 | 135 |
| OTT | 09 | 18 | 210 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:16OTTRidly GreigSHAssists: Shane Pinto, Artem Zub · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 13:52UTAClayton KellerAssists: Olli Maatta, John Marino · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P3 7:33OTTClaude GirouxGWGAssists: Tim Stützle, Jake Sanderson · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 13:22OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Tim Stützle, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 17:45OTTMichael Amadio: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:28UTAMichael Kesselring: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:16OTTThomas Chabot: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 8:52UTALogan Cooley: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:50OTTJosh Norris: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:59UTAJuuso Välimäki: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Utah Hockey Club
Forward lines
- bestHayton – Maccelli – Doan8:49
xG 0.50–0.32 (61%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Schmaltz – Keller – Cooley10:52
xG 0.34–0.30 (53%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Kerfoot – O'Brien – Stenlund7:52
xG 0.33–0.31 (51%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Crouse – McBain10:40
xG 0.13–0.54 (19%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVälimäki – DeSimone11:10
xG 0.52–0.31 (63%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Cole – Kesselring14:10
xG 0.32–0.32 (49%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Maatta – Marino12:37
xG 0.60–0.86 (41%)attempts 21–10goals 0–2
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Tkachuk – Stützle5:03
xG 0.61–0.05 (93%)attempts 5–5goals 2–0
- Batherson – Greig – Ostapchuk2:07
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Amadio – Highmore – Pinto4:16
xG 0.16–0.07 (71%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Highmore – Gaudette – Ostapchuk3:48
xG 0.04–0.02 (62%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanderson – Zub14:26
xG 0.80–0.19 (81%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
- Chabot – Zub2:00
xG 0.12–0.04 (75%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Kleven – Zub2:03
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it UTA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − UTA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).