Sun, Jan 26, 2025·United Center, Chicago
Minnesota Wild 4, Chicago Blackhawks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 211 | 17 | 110 | 428 |
| CHI | 01 | 04 | 215 | 220 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:43MINJared SpurgeonAssists: Matt Boldy, Marco Rossi · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 7:17MINFrederick GaudreauAssists: Marcus Foligno · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 10:45MINJoel Eriksson EkPPGWGAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–0
- P3 0:56CHISeth JonesPPAssists: Connor Bedard, Tyler Bertuzzi · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 4:16CHIFrank NazarAssists: Ethan Del Mastro · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 18:18MINMarcus FolignoENAssists: Matt Boldy, Zach Bogosian · Wrist, 0.55 xG4–2
Penalties (10)
- P2 7:09CHINick Foligno: Holding2 min
- P2 7:09CHINick Foligno: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 0:47MINJake Middleton: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:01CHIPatrick Maroon: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 3:01MINJake Middleton: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 4:16MINZach Bogosian: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:16CHIRyan Donato: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:54MINMarcus Foligno: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:04CHIEthan Del Mastro: Holding2 min
- P3 14:56MINJakub Lauko: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dickinson won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestShore – Hartman – Khusnutdinov7:33
xG 0.44–0.11 (80%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Eriksson Ek – Kaprizov13:58
xG 0.41–0.12 (77%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Boldy – Rossi – Ohgren8:17
xG 0.28–0.06 (83%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Foligno – Gaudreau – Lauko8:42
xG 0.11–0.14 (44%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiddleton – Faber18:56
xG 0.67–0.31 (69%)attempts 12–21goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Dermott8:52
xG 0.40–0.06 (88%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Spurgeon – Merrill9:55
xG 0.15–0.14 (52%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Dach – Nazar2:22
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Foligno – Reichel – Dach4:07
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Reichel – Bedard4:27
xG 0.01–0.13 (9%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Nazar – Bedard6:54
xG 0.15–0.27 (36%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Del Mastro8:53
xG 0.28–0.21 (57%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Crevier – Allan3:23
xG 0.09–0.05 (62%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Martinez – Jones5:00
xG 0.06–0.03 (62%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).