Sun, Jan 26, 2025·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Florida Panthers 1, Vegas Golden Knights 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 011 | 011 | 112 | 134 |
| VGK | 16 | 19 | 211 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:26VGKBrayden McNabbAssists: Keegan Kolesar, Nicolas Roy · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 5:40VGKTanner PearsonGWGAssists: Nicolas Roy, Keegan Kolesar · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P3 1:56FLAAnton LundellAssists: Eetu Luostarinen, Uvis Balinskis · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 11:31VGKJack EichelAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Alexander Holtz · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–3
- P3 19:31VGKTomas HertlENAssists: Nicolas Roy, Brayden McNabb · Wrist, 0.82 xG1–4
Penalties (5)
- P2 1:50VGKNicolas Roy: Holding2 min
- P2 12:34FLATomas Nosek: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:56VGKNicolas Hague: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:26FLANiko Mikkola: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:13VGKTomas Hertl: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestNosek – Greer – Rodrigues5:16
xG 0.41–0.03 (94%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Bennett – Tkachuk – Samoskevich5:32
xG 0.77–0.49 (61%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Barkov – Reinhart – Tkachuk8:38
xG 0.58–0.51 (54%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Verhaeghe – Barkov – Reinhart4:41
xG 0.06–0.03 (69%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Kulikov – Mikkola15:04
xG 1.01–1.02 (50%)attempts 17–22goals 0–0
- Ekblad – Forsling15:26
xG 0.65–0.67 (49%)attempts 14–14goals 0–2
- Schmidt – Balinskis13:48
xG 0.42–0.45 (48%)attempts 19–13goals 1–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Olofsson – Dorofeyev9:23
xG 0.38–0.13 (75%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Pearson – Kolesar – Roy8:22
xG 0.24–0.23 (51%)attempts 7–6goals 2–1
- Howden – Rondbjerg – Holtz3:38
xG 0.12–0.12 (50%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Stone – Howden – Rondbjerg4:14
xG 0.30–0.34 (47%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHague – Whitecloud13:01
xG 0.70–0.62 (53%)attempts 20–11goals 0–1
- Pietrangelo – Hanifin17:00
xG 0.86–0.88 (49%)attempts 18–19goals 1–0
- McNabb – Theodore17:58
xG 0.77–0.93 (45%)attempts 14–27goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).