Tue, Jan 28, 2025·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Boston Bruins 2, Buffalo Sabres 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 15 | 013 | 19 | 227 |
| BUF | 110 | 29 | 414 | 733 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:44BOSMason LohreiUnassisted · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 13:39BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Dylan Cozens, JJ Peterka · Slap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 4:43BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Ryan McLeod, Mattias Samuelsson · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 6:32BUFJJ PeterkaGWGAssists: Owen Power, Tage Thompson · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 3:13BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Bowen Byram · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–4
- P3 10:13BOSBrad MarchandPPAssists: Elias Lindholm, David Pastrnak · Snap, 0.14 xG2–4
- P3 10:43BUFJJ PeterkaAssists: Jiri Kulich · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–5
- P3 14:26BUFJJ PeterkaENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.60 xG2–6
- P3 19:47BUFZach BensonPPAssists: Jack Quinn, Dylan Cozens · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–7
Penalties (6)
- P2 10:34BUFMattias Samuelsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:58BOSBrad Marchand: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:34BOSPavel Zacha: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:51BUFDylan Cozens: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 18:25BOSNikita Zadorov: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 18:25BOSNikita Zadorov: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cozens won the faceoff against Geekie
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestLindholm – Frederic – Lettieri7:11
xG 0.52–0.02 (97%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Marchand – Coyle – Poitras8:49
xG 0.44–0.39 (53%)attempts 11–8goals 0–2
- Pastrnak – Zacha – Geekie12:56
xG 0.27–0.32 (46%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Brazeau – Koepke – Beecher8:31
xG 0.16–0.49 (24%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestOesterle – Callahan12:43
xG 0.81–0.61 (57%)attempts 16–18goals 0–1
- Wotherspoon – Lohrei18:38
xG 0.50–0.40 (56%)attempts 16–9goals 1–1
- Zadorov – Peeke16:33
xG 0.58–1.01 (37%)attempts 20–21goals 0–3
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestZucker – Tuch – Cozens12:50
xG 0.63–0.57 (53%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Malenstyn – Kozak – Benson5:34
xG 0.24–0.36 (40%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Thompson – Peterka – Kulich10:00
xG 0.35–0.49 (42%)attempts 8–13goals 3–0
- McLeod – Krebs – Quinn10:47
xG 0.13–0.39 (24%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamuelsson – Power16:31
xG 0.63–0.51 (56%)attempts 19–16goals 2–1
- Dahlin – Byram16:13
xG 0.54–0.68 (44%)attempts 12–17goals 1–0
- Jokiharju – Bryson10:37
xG 0.21–0.75 (22%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).