Tue, Jan 28, 2025·Madison Square Garden, New York
Carolina Hurricanes 4, New York Rangers 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 18 | 110 | 28 | 426 |
| NYR | 010 | 09 | 03 | 022 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:56CARAndrei SvechnikovGWGAssists: Taylor Hall, Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 19:29CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Jackson Blake · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–0
- P3 1:04CARSebastian AhoAssists: Andrei Svechnikov · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–0
- P3 2:30CARSeth JarvisAssists: Jordan Martinook · Snap, 0.24 xG4–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:02CARRiley Stillman: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:02NYRSam Carrick: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:58CARJordan Martinook: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:11NYRAlexis Lafrenière: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:42CARSeth Jarvis: Interference2 min
- P2 17:19NYRRyan Lindgren: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:09CARSebastian Aho: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Aho
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestHall – Robinson – Jaaska4:03
xG 0.26–0.01 (97%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Rantanen – Aho – Blake13:36
xG 0.61–0.39 (61%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Staal – Martinook – Jarvis10:32
xG 0.47–0.44 (51%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Hall – Kotkaniemi – Svechnikov9:02
xG 0.17–0.39 (31%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Walker10:24
xG 0.48–0.18 (73%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Orlov – Chatfield12:02
xG 0.61–0.48 (56%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Chatfield – Stillman2:03
xG 0.13–0.02 (89%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Kreider – Chytil – Kaliyev7:37
xG 0.18–0.17 (51%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Smith – Zibanejad – Cuylle9:44
xG 0.22–0.24 (47%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Carrick – Edstrom – Rempe7:59
xG 0.19–0.30 (38%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière8:19
xG 0.40–0.63 (39%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVaakanainen – Schneider13:29
xG 0.71–0.27 (73%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Fox – Lindgren13:55
xG 0.64–0.61 (51%)attempts 14–9goals 0–2
- Borgen – Miller17:06
xG 0.29–0.91 (24%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).