Tue, Jan 28, 2025·UBS Arena, Elmont
Colorado Avalanche 2, New York Islanders 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 014 | 112 | 16 | 232 |
| NYI | 011 | 17 | 410 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:11NYIAnders LeeAssists: Brock Nelson, Tony DeAngelo · Backhand, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 13:00COLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Martin Necas · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 1:54NYISimon HolmstromAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P3 11:23NYIBo HorvatGWGAssists: Anders Lee, Scott Perunovich · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–3
- P3 14:55COLJack DruryAssists: Martin Necas, Josh Manson · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 17:31NYIAlexander RomanovAssists: Simon Holmstrom, Casey Cizikas · Wrist, 0.00 xG2–4
- P3 18:50NYISimon HolmstromENAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Backhand, 0.78 xG2–5
Penalties (2)
- P1 13:20NYIJean-Gabriel Pageau: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:26NYIAnders Lee: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacKinnon – Drouin – Necas12:54
xG 0.85–0.49 (63%)attempts 21–13goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – Mittelstadt – Parssinen8:15
xG 0.20–0.05 (80%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas3:14
xG 0.21–0.08 (73%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Kelly – O'Connor – Kiviranta8:41
xG 0.33–0.26 (56%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar18:26
xG 0.99–0.65 (60%)attempts 26–16goals 2–1
- Manson – Girard15:17
xG 0.74–0.60 (55%)attempts 21–17goals 0–2
- de Haan – Malinski11:12
xG 0.24–0.56 (30%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestMacLean – Gatcomb – Tsyplakov6:40
xG 0.35–0.12 (74%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Cizikas – Pageau – Holmstrom10:13
xG 0.48–0.41 (54%)attempts 11–16goals 2–1
- Lee – Horvat – Barzal14:05
xG 0.70–0.69 (50%)attempts 19–21goals 1–0
- Palmieri – Nelson – Duclair11:22
xG 0.11–0.76 (13%)attempts 6–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Perunovich15:48
xG 0.81–0.49 (62%)attempts 21–15goals 1–0
- DeAngelo – Romanov17:38
xG 0.52–1.02 (34%)attempts 16–24goals 2–1
- Mayfield – George10:26
xG 0.14–0.66 (17%)attempts 5–22goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).